Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Arkansas-Pine Bluff, while the market favors Prairie View A&M (57%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Prairie View A&M vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Arkansas-Pine Bluff (67%) · Arkansas-Pine Bluff at 43¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 14

Prairie View A&M57¢Arkansas-Pine Bluff43¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Arkansas-Pine Bluff

Consensus Traders

Arkansas-Pine Bluff 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.5K

Combined PnL

$100.44

Smart Money Entry

44¢ → 43¢

-2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralArkansas-Pine Bluff at 43%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Arkansas-Pine Bluff

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Prairie View A&M 57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Prairie View A&M57%

Arkansas-Pine Bluff43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Arkansas-Pine Bluff6 traders

Total Value$7.5K

Total Shares16,877

Combined PnL+$87.68

Prairie View A&M3 traders

Total Value$834.01

Total Shares1,501

Combined PnL+$12.77

Arkansas-Pine Bluff — 67%Prairie View A&M — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+38 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Arkansas-Pine Bluff. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleArkansas-Pine Bluff 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrArkansas-Pine Bluff 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Arkansas-Pine Bluff 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR	Arkansas-Pine Bluffavg 44¢	$6.7K	$6.8K	+$76.2	48% 34-37 (71)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Arkansas-Pine Bluffavg 44¢	$352	$356	+$4	25% 343-1024 (1367)
MD mde4life1986	Prairie View A&Mavg 55¢	$334.75	$334.75	+$0	4% 3-67 (70)
nigiri99	Prairie View A&Mavg 56.5¢	$325.84	$326.01	+$0.17	51% 568-535 (1103)
PA Pan9XCTR	Arkansas-Pine Bluffavg 43.7¢	$196.5	$200.25	+$3.75	50% 1593-1618 (3211)
OM omnibus-076daa	Prairie View A&Mavg 51¢	$160.65	$173.25	+$12.6	46% 496-589 (1085)
FO forecastication4CTR	Arkansas-Pine Bluffavg 43¢	$144.15	$147.4	+$3.25	33% 168-336 (504)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Arkansas-Pine Bluffavg 50¢	$1.9K	$137.5	-$0.5	69% 133-60 (193)
└ Arkansas-Pine Bluff leg	Arkansas-Pine Bluffavg 50¢	$125	$110	-$15
└ Prairie View A&M leg	Prairie View A&Mavg 50¢	$25	$27.5	+$14.5
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Arkansas-Pine Bluffavg 43¢	$13.6	$14.08	+$0.47	52% 1734-1576 (3310)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Arkansas-Pine Bluffavg 44¢	$8.8	$8.8	+$0	50% 3806-3775 (7581)

imjustkenisgheyCTR

Arkansas-Pine Bluff

Invested

$6,705.66

Value

$6.8K

PnL

+$76.2

Record

48%

34-37 (71)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Arkansas-Pine Bluff

Invested

$352

Value

$356

PnL

+$4

Record

25%

343-1024 (1367)

mde4life1986

Prairie View A&M

Invested

$334.75

Value

$334.75

PnL

+$0

Record

3-67 (70)

nigiri99

Prairie View A&M

Invested

$325.84

Value

$326.01

PnL

+$0.17

Record

51%

568-535 (1103)

Pan9XCTR

Arkansas-Pine Bluff

Invested

$196.5

Value

$200.25

PnL

+$3.75

Record

50%

1593-1618 (3211)

omnibus-076daa

Prairie View A&M

Invested

$160.65

Value

$173.25

PnL

+$12.6

Record

46%

496-589 (1085)

forecastication4CTR

Arkansas-Pine Bluff

Invested

$144.15

Value

$147.4

PnL

+$3.25

Record

33%

168-336 (504)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Arkansas-Pine Bluff

Invested

$1,850

Value

$137.5

PnL

-$0.5

Record

69%

133-60 (193)

Both legs:

Arkansas-Pine Bluff$12550¢-$15

Prairie View A&M$2550¢+$14.5

ghorrockCTR<$100

Arkansas-Pine Bluff

Invested

$13.6

Value

$14.08

PnL

+$0.47

Record

52%

1734-1576 (3310)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Arkansas-Pine Bluff

Invested

$8.8

Value

$8.8

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

3806-3775 (7581)

Research grade

NeutralArkansas-Pine Bluff at 43%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Arkansas-Pine Bluff

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Prairie View A&M 57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+38 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Arkansas-Pine Bluff. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleArkansas-Pine Bluff 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrArkansas-Pine Bluff 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Arkansas-Pine Bluff 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Arkansas-Pine Bluff wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.2%

43.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$121.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

221.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.