Purdue vs. Penn State: O/U 55.5

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 79¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 31

Over79¢Under21¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$5.5K

Combined PnL

-$14.29

Smart Money Entry

49.8¢ → 79¢

+59% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over79%

Under21%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares5,169

Combined PnL-$109.39

Under4 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,752

Combined PnL+$95.09

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 49.7¢	$3.4K	$3.3K	-$69.64	54% 17179-14402 (31581)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR	Underavg 50¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$87.5	54% 4896-4121 (9017)
FO Forecastication2	Overavg 50¢	$776.5	$722.15	-$54.36	50% 7036-7035 (14071)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$62.28	$68	+$5.72	58% 42027-30514 (72541)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Underavg 52¢	$41.08	$42.27	+$1.19	54% 2996-2576 (5572)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 40¢	$14.3	$28.78	+$14.48	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 52¢	$23.92	$24.61	+$0.69	58% 28788-21225 (50013)
PR primm<$100	Overavg 61¢	$3.07	$3.2	+$0.13	46% 1072-1263 (2335)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$3,354.58

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$69.64

Record

54%

17179-14402 (31581)

WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR

Under

Invested

$1,250

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$87.5

Record

54%

4896-4121 (9017)

Forecastication2

Over

Invested

$776.5

Value

$722.15

PnL

-$54.36

Record

50%

7036-7035 (14071)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$62.28

Value

$68

PnL

+$5.72

Record

58%

42027-30514 (72541)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$41.08

Value

$42.27

PnL

+$1.19

Record

54%

2996-2576 (5572)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$14.3

Value

$28.78

PnL

+$14.48

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$23.92

Value

$24.61

PnL

+$0.69

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

primm<$100

Over

Invested

$3.07

Value

$3.2

PnL

+$0.13

Record

46%

1072-1263 (2335)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 79%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.8%

79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.