Spread: Penn State (-10.5)

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Purdue (75%) · Purdue at 53¢ · $12K held · ended Oct 31

Penn State47¢Purdue53¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Purdue

Consensus Traders

Purdue 75%

Total Value

$11.5K

Combined PnL

$462.53

Smart Money Entry

50.9¢ → 53¢

+4% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralPurdue at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Purdue

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Penn State47%

Purdue53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Purdue6 traders

Total Value$9.7K

Total Shares18,840

Combined PnL+$95.01

Penn State2 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares2,969

Combined PnL+$367.52

Purdue — 75%Penn State — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Purdueavg 51¢	$6.4K	$6.5K	+$63.18	54% 17179-14402 (31581)
0X 0x0A77exmm	Purdueavg 51¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$24.5	54% 2305-1991 (4296)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Penn Stateavg 49¢	$1.4K	$1.8K	+$369.98	50% 7036-7035 (14071)
HI hi774c	Purdueavg 49¢	$295.48	$304.25	+$8.77	52% 4736-4456 (9192)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks	Purdueavg 51¢	$170.34	$168.67	-$1.67	54% 2996-2576 (5572)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Purdueavg 50.7¢	$136.3	$138.53	+$2.23	58% 28788-21225 (50013)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Penn Stateavg 50¢	$61.5	$59.04	-$2.46	53% 10788-9397 (20185)
SU SunflowaRebuildYear<$100	Purdueavg 42¢	$42	$40	-$2	47% 331-377 (708)

HomeRunHazard

Purdue

Invested

$6,443

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$63.18

Record

54%

17179-14402 (31581)

0x0A77exmm

Purdue

Invested

$2,499.51

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$24.5

Record

54%

2305-1991 (4296)

Forecastication2CTR

Penn State

Invested

$1,394.54

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$369.98

Record

50%

7036-7035 (14071)

hi774c

Purdue

Invested

$295.48

Value

$304.25

PnL

+$8.77

Record

52%

4736-4456 (9192)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks

Purdue

Invested

$170.34

Value

$168.67

PnL

-$1.67

Record

54%

2996-2576 (5572)

LeLynxMalynx

Purdue

Invested

$136.3

Value

$138.53

PnL

+$2.23

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Penn State

Invested

$61.5

Value

$59.04

PnL

-$2.46

Record

53%

10788-9397 (20185)

SunflowaRebuildYear<$100

Purdue

Invested

$42

Value

$40

PnL

-$2

Record

47%

331-377 (708)

Research grade

NeutralPurdue at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Purdue

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Purdue wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.2%

53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$81.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

181.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.