Purdue vs. Penn State

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Penn State (33%) · Penn State at 78¢ · $14K held · ends Oct 31

Purdue23¢Penn State77¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Penn State

Consensus Traders

Penn State 33%

Total Value

$13.6K

Combined PnL

$114.45

Smart Money Entry

77¢ → 77.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralPenn State at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Penn State

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Purdue23%

Penn State78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Penn State2 traders

Total Value$12.4K

Total Shares15,967

Combined PnL+$79.83

Purdue4 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares5,521

Combined PnL+$34.62

Penn State — 33%Purdue — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Penn State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Purdue) and the top 1000 (4 on Penn State) disagree here.

whalePenn State 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpPenn State 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrPurdue 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedPurdue 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Penn State 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Penn Stateavg 77¢	$9.6K	$9.6K	+$62.23	54% 17179-14402 (31581)
HE Herdonia	Penn Stateavg 77¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$17.6	54% 3357-2905 (6262)
0xheavy888CTR	Purdueavg 22¢	$669.14	$684.34	+$15.21	55% 7136-5731 (12867)
VeryLucky888CTR	Purdueavg 22¢	$446.69	$466.99	+$20.3	58% 42027-30514 (72541)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Purdueavg 23¢	$72.22	$70.65	-$1.57	50% 3877-3837 (7714)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	Purdueavg 22¢	$29.7	$31.05	+$0.68	73% 6697-2416 (9113)

HomeRunHazard

Penn State

Invested

$9,584

Value

$9.6K

PnL

+$62.23

Record

54%

17179-14402 (31581)

Herdonia

Penn State

Invested

$2,710.32

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$17.6

Record

54%

3357-2905 (6262)

0xheavy888CTR

Purdue

Invested

$669.14

Value

$684.34

PnL

+$15.21

Record

55%

7136-5731 (12867)

VeryLucky888CTR

Purdue

Invested

$446.69

Value

$466.99

PnL

+$20.3

Record

58%

42027-30514 (72541)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Purdue

Invested

$72.22

Value

$70.65

PnL

-$1.57

Record

50%

3877-3837 (7714)

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

Purdue

Invested

$29.7

Value

$31.05

PnL

+$0.68

Record

73%

6697-2416 (9113)

Research grade

NeutralPenn State at 78%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Penn State

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Penn State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Purdue) and the top 1000 (4 on Penn State) disagree here.

whalePenn State 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpPenn State 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrPurdue 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedPurdue 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Penn State 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Penn State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.