Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Purdue, while the market favors Iowa (57%). 4 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Iowa (-23.5)
4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Purdue (44%) · Purdue at 43¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Purdue
9
Purdue 44%
$3.1K
-$57.14
57.2¢ → 43¢
-25% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralPurdue at 43%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Iowa 57%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Purdue. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PR primmCTR | Purdueavg 56.8¢ | $1.7K | $1.4K | -$305.47 | 59% 1044-726 (1770) |
 RN1 | Iowaavg 39¢ | $329.06 | $520.88 | +$191.82 | 55% 5703-4745 (10448) |
MA MadridTime | Iowaavg 36¢ | $264.26 | $345.01 | +$80.75 | 38% 1183-1919 (3102) |
LI Limousin | Iowaavg 37¢ | $264.26 | $335.68 | +$71.42 | 37% 1153-1939 (3092) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Purdueavg 59.9¢ | $1.3K | $316.25 | -$102.98 | 47% 3551-3935 (7486) |
NA NatoAlfista<$100 | Iowaavg 49¢ | $69.58 | $93.01 | +$23.43 | 43% 216-282 (498) |
65 6512395314597884<$100 | Iowaavg 39.2¢ | $96.97 | $82.86 | -$14.11 | 50% 3954-3949 (7903) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Purdueavg 53.9¢ | $61.44 | $29 | -$0.99 | 50% 1827-1860 (3687) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Purdueavg 63¢ | $6.35 | $5.34 | -$1.01 | 53% 2063-1842 (3905) |
Invested
$1,690.8
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$305.47
Record
59%
1044-726 (1770)
RN1Invested
$329.06
Value
$520.88
PnL
+$191.82
Record
55%
5703-4745 (10448)
Invested
$264.26
Value
$345.01
PnL
+$80.75
Record
38%
1183-1919 (3102)
Invested
$264.26
Value
$335.68
PnL
+$71.42
Record
37%
1153-1939 (3092)
Invested
$1,304.14
Value
$316.25
PnL
-$102.98
Record
47%
3551-3935 (7486)
Invested
$69.58
Value
$93.01
PnL
+$23.43
Record
43%
216-282 (498)
Invested
$96.97
Value
$82.86
PnL
-$14.11
Record
50%
3954-3949 (7903)
Invested
$61.44
Value
$29
PnL
-$0.99
Record
50%
1827-1860 (3687)
Invested
$6.35
Value
$5.34
PnL
-$1.01
Record
53%
2063-1842 (3905)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.