Spread: Iowa (-20.5)

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Iowa (58%) · Iowa at 50¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 15

Iowa50¢Purdue50¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Iowa

Consensus Traders

Iowa 58%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

-$85.02

Smart Money Entry

44.9¢ → 50¢

+11% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralIowa at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Iowa

7 of 12 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Iowa50%

Purdue50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Iowa7 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares4,109

Combined PnL+$39.46

Purdue5 traders

Total Value$989.41

Total Shares1,960

Combined PnL-$124.48

Iowa — 58%Purdue — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Iowaavg 45¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$12.15	56% 3718-2886 (6604)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Purdueavg 55¢	$1.3K	$767.04	+$33.15	47% 3383-3741 (7124)
└ Purdue leg	Purdueavg 55¢	$525.83	$535.33	-$26.2
└ Iowa leg	Iowaavg 41.9¢	$220.61	$231.71	+$59.35
PR primm	Purdueavg 58¢	$585.85	$565.64	-$20.2	60% 1016-678 (1694)
VE Venusian	Iowaavg 44.4¢	$421.6	$432.36	+$10.76	37% 1070-1834 (2904)
GL glennyorkshire	Purdueavg 55¢	$474.14	$370.69	-$103.45	45% 177-217 (394)
MA MadridTime	Iowaavg 45¢	$264.26	$267.2	+$2.94	38% 1094-1794 (2888)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Iowaavg 45.2¢	$42.53	$54.99	+$12.46	53% 310-274 (584)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Purdueavg 54¢	$23.27	$23.49	+$0.22	47% 339-375 (714)
AM AmericaFirst1<$100	Purdueavg 59¢	$20.55	$19.51	-$1.04	57% 168-128 (296)
LI Limousin<$100	Iowaavg 43.2¢	$14.54	$15.31	+$0.77	37% 1064-1806 (2870)
GH ghorrock<$100	Purdueavg 58¢	$10.08	$10.08	+$0	53% 1938-1717 (3655)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Iowaavg 51¢	$5.1	$5.35	+$0.25	50% 3874-3873 (7747)
FO forecastication4<$100	Iowaavg 40¢	$1.33	$1.47	+$0.13	34% 175-339 (514)

HomeRunHazard

Iowa

Invested

$1,093.62

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$12.15

Record

56%

3718-2886 (6604)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Purdue

Invested

$1,322.97

Value

$767.04

PnL

+$33.15

Record

47%

3383-3741 (7124)

Both legs:

Purdue$525.8355¢-$26.2

Iowa$220.6141.9¢+$59.35

primm

Purdue

Invested

$585.85

Value

$565.64

PnL

-$20.2

Record

60%

1016-678 (1694)

Venusian

Iowa

Invested

$421.6

Value

$432.36

PnL

+$10.76

Record

37%

1070-1834 (2904)

glennyorkshire

Purdue

Invested

$474.14

Value

$370.69

PnL

-$103.45

Record

45%

177-217 (394)

MadridTime

Iowa

Invested

$264.26

Value

$267.2

PnL

+$2.94

Record

38%

1094-1794 (2888)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Iowa

Invested

$42.53

Value

$54.99

PnL

+$12.46

Record

53%

310-274 (584)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Purdue

Invested

$23.27

Value

$23.49

PnL

+$0.22

Record

47%

339-375 (714)

AmericaFirst1<$100

Purdue

Invested

$20.55

Value

$19.51

PnL

-$1.04

Record

57%

168-128 (296)

Limousin<$100

Iowa

Invested

$14.54

Value

$15.31

PnL

+$0.77

Record

37%

1064-1806 (2870)

ghorrock<$100

Purdue

Invested

$10.08

Value

$10.08

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

1938-1717 (3655)

6512395314597884<$100

Iowa

Invested

$5.1

Value

$5.35

PnL

+$0.25

Record

50%

3874-3873 (7747)

forecastication4<$100

Iowa

Invested

$1.33

Value

$1.47

PnL

+$0.13

Record

34%

175-339 (514)

Research grade

NeutralIowa at 50%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Iowa

7 of 12 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Iowa wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.2%

50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$91.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

191.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.