Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Iowa, while the market favors Purdue (53%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Iowa (-18.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Iowa (67%) · Iowa at 48¢ · $21K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Iowa
6
Iowa 67%
$21.0K
-$68.18
51¢ → 47.5¢
-7% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralIowa at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Purdue 53%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Iowaavg 51¢ | $9.9K | $9.2K | -$676.86 | 50% 2600-2575 (5175) |
BO Bozos14 | Purdueavg 49¢ | $5.0K | $5.4K | +$357.14 | 6% 9-134 (143) |
DO Donkey14 | Purdueavg 49¢ | $4.7K | $5.0K | +$335.25 | 36% 9-16 (25) |
 nigiri99CTR | Iowaavg 50.8¢ | $1.3K | $1.2K | -$83.56 | 52% 602-565 (1167) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR | Iowaavg 50¢ | $600 | $200 | +$0 | 68% 136-63 (199) |
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100 | Iowaavg 49¢ | $5.37 | $5.21 | -$0.16 | 47% 339-375 (714) |
Invested
$9,862.77
Value
$9.2K
PnL
-$676.86
Record
50%
2600-2575 (5175)
Invested
$5,000
Value
$5.4K
PnL
+$357.14
Record
6%
9-134 (143)
Invested
$4,693.56
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$335.25
Record
36%
9-16 (25)
nigiri99CTRInvested
$1,276.76
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$83.56
Record
52%
602-565 (1167)
Invested
$600
Value
$200
PnL
+$0
Record
68%
136-63 (199)
Invested
$5.37
Value
$5.21
PnL
-$0.16
Record
47%
339-375 (714)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.