Spread: Iowa (-16.5)

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Iowa (56%) · Iowa at 56¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 15

Iowa56¢Purdue44¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Iowa

Consensus Traders

Iowa 56%

Total Value

$12.2K

Combined PnL

-$2.38

Smart Money Entry

54.1¢ → 56.5¢

+4% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralIowa at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Iowa

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Iowa56%

Purdue44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Purdue4 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares12,227

Combined PnL-$128.77

Iowa5 traders

Total Value$6.7K

Total Shares12,078

Combined PnL+$126.39

Purdue — 44%Iowa — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Iowa. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Iowa) and the top 1000 (8 on Purdue) disagree here.

whaleIowa 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrIowa 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedIowa 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Purdue 50% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primmCTR	Purdueavg 46¢	$5.0K	$4.9K	-$108.7	59% 948-662 (1610)
HO HomeRunHazard	Iowaavg 54¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$55.97	56% 3699-2861 (6560)
HI hi774c	Iowaavg 54¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$41.72	23% 184-622 (806)
VeryLucky888	Iowaavg 53.9¢	$589.73	$601.61	+$11.88	54% 1497-1295 (2792)
nigiri99	Iowaavg 55¢	$513.7	$527.71	+$14.01	51% 579-546 (1125)
38 38791873984189CTR	Purdueavg 45.2¢	$421.61	$406.01	-$15.61	48% 3305-3631 (6936)
AM AmericaFirst1CTR	Purdueavg 46¢	$174.58	$170.78	-$3.8	50% 114-116 (230)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Iowaavg 54¢	$151.74	$154.55	+$2.81	47% 319-356 (675)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Purdueavg 45¢	$20.25	$19.58	-$0.68	50% 1636-1654 (3290)

primmCTR

Purdue

Invested

$4,999.99

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$108.7

Record

59%

948-662 (1610)

HomeRunHazard

Iowa

Invested

$3,028.81

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$55.97

Record

56%

3699-2861 (6560)

hi774c

Iowa

Invested

$2,253

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$41.72

Record

23%

184-622 (806)

VeryLucky888

Iowa

Invested

$589.73

Value

$601.61

PnL

+$11.88

Record

54%

1497-1295 (2792)

nigiri99

Iowa

Invested

$513.7

Value

$527.71

PnL

+$14.01

Record

51%

579-546 (1125)

38791873984189CTR

Purdue

Invested

$421.61

Value

$406.01

PnL

-$15.61

Record

48%

3305-3631 (6936)

AmericaFirst1CTR

Purdue

Invested

$174.58

Value

$170.78

PnL

-$3.8

Record

50%

114-116 (230)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Iowa

Invested

$151.74

Value

$154.55

PnL

+$2.81

Record

47%

319-356 (675)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Purdue

Invested

$20.25

Value

$19.58

PnL

-$0.68

Record

50%

1636-1654 (3290)

Research grade

NeutralIowa at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Iowa

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Iowa. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Iowa) and the top 1000 (8 on Purdue) disagree here.

whaleIowa 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrIowa 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedIowa 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Purdue 50% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Iowa wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.