Purdue vs. Iowa

7 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Iowa (41%) · Iowa at 94¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 15

Purdue6¢Iowa94¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Iowa

Consensus Traders

Iowa 41%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.6K

Combined PnL

$179.26

Smart Money Entry

93.2¢ → 94.2¢

+1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralIowa at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Iowa

7 of 17 top traders (41%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Purdue6%

Iowa94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Iowa7 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares5,189

Combined PnL+$155.15

Purdue10 traders

Total Value$196.27

Total Shares2,376

Combined PnL+$24.11

Iowa — 41%Purdue — 59%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Iowa. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleIowa 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpIowa 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPurdue 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedPurdue 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Purdue 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Iowaavg 95.4¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$52.94	47% 3487-3859 (7346)
nigiri99	Iowaavg 90¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$82.08	51% 628-592 (1220)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Iowaavg 93.7¢	$387.2	$403.03	+$15.84	56% 4095-3198 (7293)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Iowaavg 93¢	$371.2	$372.6	+$1.4	49% 564-591 (1155)
PA Pan9X	Iowaavg 95.6¢	$419.23	$364.71	+$0.25	49% 1751-1796 (3547)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Purdueavg 9.5¢	$266.29	$214.37	-$51.92	50% 3904-3895 (7799)
└ Purdue leg	Purdueavg 9.5¢	$199.86	$147.94	-$51.92
└ Iowa leg	Iowaavg 93¢	$66.43	$66.43	+$0
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Purdueavg 6.9¢	$292.32	$195.31	-$97.01	46% 546-643 (1189)
└ Iowa leg	Iowaavg 96.9¢	$109.4	$109.21	-$0.19
└ Purdue leg	Purdueavg 6.9¢	$182.92	$86.1	-$96.82
RN1	Iowaavg 98.4¢	$108.24	$108.57	+$0.33	55% 5637-4683 (10320)
CM cm2897CTR<$100	Purdueavg 2.2¢	$23.62	$61.75	+$38.13	49% 1188-1231 (2419)
NO NotJumpCTR	Purdueavg 50¢	$105	$58.5	+$1.5	51% 954-911 (1865)
wowfarm<$100	Iowaavg 89¢	$51.34	$53.65	+$2.31	50% 18-18 (36)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Purdueavg 9.2¢	$59.22	$46.65	-$12.57	54% 1599-1379 (2978)
0X 0xfFFF6537CTR<$100	Purdueavg 6.7¢	$10	$10.5	+$0.5	39% 68-106 (174)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Purdueavg 4.2¢	$9.66	$7.82	-$1.84	31% 263-595 (858)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Purdueavg 4.9¢	$4.9	$4.5	-$0.4	50% 2654-2620 (5274)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Purdueavg 5.4¢	$3.31	$3.4	+$0.09	37% 1136-1943 (3079)
EF efntrickCTR<$100	Purdueavg 10¢	$2	$1.4	-$0.6	45% 97-119 (216)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Purdueavg 12¢	$1.36	$0.91	-$0.45	47% 1052-1201 (2253)
TH thirdt1meCTR<$100	Purdueavg 9¢	$1.09	$0.85	-$0.24	48% 304-328 (632)

38791873984189

Iowa

Invested

$1,869.82

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$52.94

Record

47%

3487-3859 (7346)

nigiri99

Iowa

Invested

$1,698.3

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$82.08

Record

51%

628-592 (1220)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Iowa

Invested

$387.2

Value

$403.03

PnL

+$15.84

Record

56%

4095-3198 (7293)

CandleHammerDrums

Iowa

Invested

$371.2

Value

$372.6

PnL

+$1.4

Record

49%

564-591 (1155)

Pan9X

Iowa

Invested

$419.23

Value

$364.71

PnL

+$0.25

Record

49%

1751-1796 (3547)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Purdue

Invested

$266.29

Value

$214.37

PnL

-$51.92

Record

50%

3904-3895 (7799)

Both legs:

Purdue$199.869.5¢-$51.92

Iowa$66.4393¢+$0

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Purdue

Invested

$292.32

Value

$195.31

PnL

-$97.01

Record

46%

546-643 (1189)

Both legs:

Iowa$109.496.9¢-$0.19

Purdue$182.926.9¢-$96.82

RN1

Iowa

Invested

$108.24

Value

$108.57

PnL

+$0.33

Record

55%

5637-4683 (10320)

cm2897CTR<$100

Purdue

Invested

$23.62

Value

$61.75

PnL

+$38.13

Record

49%

1188-1231 (2419)

NotJumpCTR

Purdue

Invested

$105

Value

$58.5

PnL

+$1.5

Record

51%

954-911 (1865)

wowfarm<$100

Iowa

Invested

$51.34

Value

$53.65

PnL

+$2.31

Record

50%

18-18 (36)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Purdue

Invested

$59.22

Value

$46.65

PnL

-$12.57

Record

54%

1599-1379 (2978)

0xfFFF6537CTR<$100

Purdue

Invested

$10

Value

$10.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

39%

68-106 (174)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Purdue

Invested

$9.66

Value

$7.82

PnL

-$1.84

Record

31%

263-595 (858)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Purdue

Invested

$4.9

Value

$4.5

PnL

-$0.4

Record

50%

2654-2620 (5274)

VenusianCTR<$100

Purdue

Invested

$3.31

Value

$3.4

PnL

+$0.09

Record

37%

1136-1943 (3079)

efntrickCTR<$100

Purdue

Invested

Value

$1.4

PnL

-$0.6

Record

45%

97-119 (216)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Purdue

Invested

$1.36

Value

$0.91

PnL

-$0.45

Record

47%

1052-1201 (2253)

thirdt1meCTR<$100

Purdue

Invested

$1.09

Value

$0.85

PnL

-$0.24

Record

48%

304-328 (632)

Research grade

NeutralIowa at 94%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Iowa

7 of 17 top traders (41%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Iowa. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleIowa 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpIowa 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPurdue 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedPurdue 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Purdue 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Iowa wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.4%

94.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.79

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.