Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (96%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Penn State vs. Washington: O/U 43.5
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 4.5¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 7
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 100%
$5.7K
$73.55
45¢ → 4.5¢
-90% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 5%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 96%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Mature
31h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Underavg 45.3¢ | $3.8K | $3.9K | +$98.32 | 54% 18479-15550 (34029) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 44.6¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | -$51.82 | 58% 47904-34520 (82424) |
HI hi774cCTR | Underavg 44¢ | $386.53 | $408.49 | +$21.96 | 46% 5316-6151 (11467) |
NM NM-PCTR | Underavg 46¢ | $142.99 | $144.54 | +$1.55 | 64% 10182-5720 (15902) |
PR primmCTR | Underavg 42¢ | $136.92 | $138.55 | +$1.63 | 47% 1317-1506 (2823) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Underavg 44¢ | $35.97 | $37.87 | +$1.9 | 48% 62396-67251 (129647) |
Invested
$3,774.3
Value
$3.9K
PnL
+$98.32
Record
54%
18479-15550 (34029)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$1,227.5
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$51.82
Record
58%
47904-34520 (82424)
Invested
$386.53
Value
$408.49
PnL
+$21.96
Record
46%
5316-6151 (11467)
Invested
$142.99
Value
$144.54
PnL
+$1.55
Record
64%
10182-5720 (15902)
Invested
$136.92
Value
$138.55
PnL
+$1.63
Record
47%
1317-1506 (2823)
Invested
$35.97
Value
$37.87
PnL
+$1.9
Record
48%
62396-67251 (129647)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
4.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.