Oregon State vs. Fresno State: O/U 57.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (80%) · Over at 52¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 80%
$1.8K
$20.35
51.2¢ → 51.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 51.3¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | +$14.52 | 58% 41507-30134 (71641) |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542 | Overavg 51¢ | $289.33 | $277.99 | +$5.67 | 47% 2470-2777 (5247) |
38 38791873984189 | Overavg 51¢ | $241.23 | $231.77 | +$4.73 | 46% 7988-9443 (17431) |
 RollAwayTheDewCTR | Underavg 50¢ | $122.45 | $124.89 | -$4.9 | 52% 374-339 (713) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 51.4¢ | $29.83 | $28.42 | +$0.33 | 58% 28421-20980 (49401) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,152.45
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$14.52
Record
58%
41507-30134 (71641)
Invested
$289.33
Value
$277.99
PnL
+$5.67
Record
47%
2470-2777 (5247)
Invested
$241.23
Value
$231.77
PnL
+$4.73
Record
46%
7988-9443 (17431)
RollAwayTheDewCTRInvested
$122.45
Value
$124.89
PnL
-$4.9
Record
52%
374-339 (713)
Invested
$29.83
Value
$28.42
PnL
+$0.33
Record
58%
28421-20980 (49401)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.