Spread: Oregon State (-7.5)

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Fresno State (40%) · Fresno State at 59¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 1

Oregon State42¢Fresno State58¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Fresno State

Consensus Traders

Fresno State 40%

Total Value

$6.1K

Combined PnL

$30.66

Smart Money Entry

58.7¢ → 58.5¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralFresno State at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Fresno State

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Oregon State42%

Fresno State59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Fresno State2 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares9,483

Combined PnL+$30.98

Oregon State3 traders

Total Value$524.01

Total Shares1,277

Combined PnL-$0.32

Fresno State — 40%Oregon State — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI lightotunnel35	Fresno Stateavg 58.7¢	$5.5K	$5.5K	+$29.43	55% 60-49 (109)
HI hi774cCTR	Oregon Stateavg 41¢	$500.72	$500.72	-$0	52% 4737-4457 (9194)
VeryLucky888<$100	Fresno Stateavg 58¢	$89.85	$91.4	+$1.55	58% 42088-30563 (72651)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Oregon Stateavg 42¢	$20.25	$20.01	-$0.24	57% 13877-10647 (24524)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Oregon Stateavg 42¢	$3.36	$3.28	-$0.08	59% 46056-32360 (78416)

lightotunnel35

Fresno State

Invested

$5,473.92

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$29.43

Record

55%

60-49 (109)

hi774cCTR

Oregon State

Invested

$500.72

Value

$500.72

PnL

-$0

Record

52%

4737-4457 (9194)

VeryLucky888<$100

Fresno State

Invested

$89.85

Value

$91.4

PnL

+$1.55

Record

58%

42088-30563 (72651)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Oregon State

Invested

$20.25

Value

$20.01

PnL

-$0.24

Record

57%

13877-10647 (24524)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Oregon State

Invested

$3.36

Value

$3.28

PnL

-$0.08

Record

59%

46056-32360 (78416)

Research grade

NeutralFresno State at 59%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Fresno State

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Fresno State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.