Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (82%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Oregon State vs. Boise State: O/U 73.5

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 19¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 14

Over82¢Under18¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 33%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

$248.57

Smart Money Entry

48.8¢ → 18.5¢

-62% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Over 82%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over82%

Under19%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,584

Combined PnL+$351.02

Under2 traders

Total Value$960.71

Total Shares2,178

Combined PnL-$102.45

Over — 67%Under — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 51¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$131.2	55% 5525-4565 (10090)
└ Over leg	Overavg 51¢	$820.7	$1.0K	+$193.6
└ Under leg	Underavg 45¢	$351	$288.6	-$62.4
BI biying88888	Overavg 55¢	$765.15	$1.0K	+$323.33	44% 216-270 (486)
PR primmCTR	Underavg 49.4¢	$1.0K	$932.88	-$68.6	60% 1016-678 (1694)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Overavg 49.2¢	$195.72	$209.24	+$13.52	50% 3874-3873 (7747)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.2¢	$105.72	$135.24	+$29.52
└ Under leg	Underavg 45¢	$90	$74	-$16
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 45.4¢	$251.25	$174.31	-$21.98	47% 3383-3741 (7124)
└ Under leg	Underavg 45.4¢	$132.76	$108.16	-$37.39
└ Over leg	Overavg 49¢	$51.45	$66.15	+$15.41
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 59¢	$130.07	$127.86	-$2.2	50% 2600-2575 (5175)
VE Venusian<$100	Overavg 31.9¢	$26.9	$53.12	+$26.22	37% 1070-1834 (2904)
CM cm2897CTR<$100	Underavg 41¢	$61.68	$27.83	-$33.85	49% 1187-1228 (2415)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 50.1¢	$28.77	$6.59	+$3.67	49% 1694-1746 (3440)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,171.7

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$131.2

Record

55%

5525-4565 (10090)

Both legs:

Invested

$765.15

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$323.33

Record

44%

216-270 (486)

primmCTR

Under

Invested

$1,001.48

Value

$932.88

PnL

-$68.6

Record

60%

1016-678 (1694)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$195.72

Value

$209.24

PnL

+$13.52

Record

50%

3874-3873 (7747)

Both legs:

Over$105.7249.2¢+$29.52

Under$9045¢-$16

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$251.25

Value

$174.31

PnL

-$21.98

Record

47%

3383-3741 (7124)

Both legs:

Under$132.7645.4¢-$37.39

Over$51.4549¢+$15.41

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$130.07

Value

$127.86

PnL

-$2.2

Record

50%

2600-2575 (5175)

Venusian<$100

Over

Invested

$26.9

Value

$53.12

PnL

+$26.22

Record

37%

1070-1834 (2904)

cm2897CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$61.68

Value

$27.83

PnL

-$33.85

Record

49%

1187-1228 (2415)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$28.77

Value

$6.59

PnL

+$3.67

Record

49%

1694-1746 (3440)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Over 82%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance20.3%

18.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$392.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

493.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.