Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (78%). 3 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Oregon State vs. Boise State: O/U 67.5

3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (27%) · Under at 22¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 14

Over78¢Under22¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 27%

Total Value

$5.7K

Combined PnL

$185.36

Smart Money Entry

53.5¢ → 22¢

-59% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 11 top traders (27%)Underdog side (market favors Over 78%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over78%

Under22%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over8 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares5,752

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Under3 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares5,398

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Over — 73%Under — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Overavg 47¢	$761.4	$1.2K	+$437.4	55% 5525-4565 (10090)
PR primmCTR	Underavg 53¢	$2.2K	$1.2K	$-1.1K	60% 1016-678 (1694)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 48¢	$529.66	$816.55	+$286.9	50% 2600-2575 (5175)
nigiri99	Overavg 44.4¢	$605.33	$695.68	+$90.34	52% 602-565 (1167)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 46.6¢	$415.48	$659.61	+$244.13	47% 3383-3741 (7124)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 55.6¢	$636.81	$618.62	-$18.19	56% 3718-2886 (6604)
65 6512395314597884	Overavg 46.5¢	$188.79	$300.49	+$111.7	50% 3874-3873 (7747)
TO topdogbigboi	Overavg 45.2¢	$94.99	$155.64	+$60.65	38% 1175-1954 (3129)
PA Pan9X	Overavg 45.7¢	$62.64	$101.37	+$38.73	49% 1694-1746 (3440)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Underavg 54¢	$24.3	$24.3	-$0	53% 310-274 (584)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Overavg 51¢	$10.2	$14.8	+$4.6	39% 593-921 (1514)

RN1

Over

Invested

$761.4

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$437.4

Record

55%

5525-4565 (10090)

primmCTR

Under

Invested

$2,227.95

Value

$1.2K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

60%

1016-678 (1694)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$529.66

Value

$816.55

PnL

+$286.9

Record

50%

2600-2575 (5175)

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$605.33

Value

$695.68

PnL

+$90.34

Record

52%

602-565 (1167)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$415.48

Value

$659.61

PnL

+$244.13

Record

47%

3383-3741 (7124)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$636.81

Value

$618.62

PnL

-$18.19

Record

56%

3718-2886 (6604)

6512395314597884

Over

Invested

$188.79

Value

$300.49

PnL

+$111.7

Record

50%

3874-3873 (7747)

topdogbigboi

Over

Invested

$94.99

Value

$155.64

PnL

+$60.65

Record

38%

1175-1954 (3129)

Pan9X

Over

Invested

$62.64

Value

$101.37

PnL

+$38.73

Record

49%

1694-1746 (3440)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$24.3

Value

$24.3

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

310-274 (584)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Over

Invested

$10.2

Value

$14.8

PnL

+$4.6

Record

39%

593-921 (1514)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 11 top traders (27%)Underdog side (market favors Over 78%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance23.9%

22.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$318.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

418.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.