Oregon vs. Ohio State: O/U 47.5

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (73%) · Under at 57¢ · $20K held · ended Nov 7

Over43¢Under57¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 73%

Total Value

$20.1K

Combined PnL

$915.37

Smart Money Entry

53.5¢ → 57.5¢

+8% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over43%

Under57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$15.8K

Total Shares27,050

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Over3 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares10,302

Combined PnL-$160.12

Under — 73%Over — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 56.7¢	$5.9K	$6.0K	+$78.58	54% 18557-15589 (34146)
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR	Overavg 44¢	$4.5K	$4.4K	-$153.56	49% 451-468 (919)
RN1	Underavg 51.2¢	$3.7K	$4.2K	+$447.16	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
PR primm	Underavg 52¢	$2.2K	$2.4K	+$230.74	47% 1317-1506 (2823)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Underavg 51.3¢	$1.7K	$1.9K	+$202.39	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 50.7¢	$710.58	$782.75	+$72.18	51% 5014-4884 (9898)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 52¢	$426.06	$381.87	+$27.84	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
VI vibing123	Underavg 53.8¢	$124.73	$133.27	+$8.54	52% 1674-1564 (3238)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 48.4¢	$59.08	$47.95	+$8.05	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Overavg 53.2¢	$31.94	$25.5	-$6.44	52% 5134-4713 (9847)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$2.25	$2.13	-$0.13	58% 47904-34520 (82424)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$5,879.41

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$78.58

Record

54%

18557-15589 (34146)

imjustkenisgheyCTR

Over

Invested

$4,504.28

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$153.56

Record

49%

451-468 (919)

RN1

Under

Invested

$3,712.39

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$447.16

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

primm

Under

Invested

$2,189.24

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$230.74

Record

47%

1317-1506 (2823)

ferrariChampions2026

Under

Invested

$1,680.42

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$202.39

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$710.58

Value

$782.75

PnL

+$72.18

Record

51%

5014-4884 (9898)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$426.06

Value

$381.87

PnL

+$27.84

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

vibing123

Under

Invested

$124.73

Value

$133.27

PnL

+$8.54

Record

52%

1674-1564 (3238)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$59.08

Value

$47.95

PnL

+$8.05

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$31.94

Value

$25.5

PnL

-$6.44

Record

52%

5134-4713 (9847)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.25

Value

$2.13

PnL

-$0.13

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 57%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.