Spread: Ohio State (-6.5)
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Oregon (80%) · Oregon at 100¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Oregon
5
Oregon 80%
$6.0K
-$58.48
41.4¢ → 99.6¢
+140% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOregon at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PR primm | Oregonavg 41.5¢ | $4.8K | $4.8K | -$58.13 | 47% 1317-1506 (2823) |
AU Aurelius7CTR | Ohio Stateavg 59.7¢ | $506.15 | $466.1 | -$8.47 | 47% 274-313 (587) |
38 38791873984189 | Oregonavg 41¢ | $416.95 | $416.95 | -$0 | 48% 62396-67251 (129647) |
IM imjustkenisghey | Oregonavg 41¢ | $332.27 | $340.37 | +$8.1 | 49% 451-468 (919) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Oregonavg 41.5¢ | $16.36 | $16.17 | +$0.01 | 54% 18479-15550 (34029) |
Invested
$4,825.56
Value
$4.8K
PnL
-$58.13
Record
47%
1317-1506 (2823)
Invested
$506.15
Value
$466.1
PnL
-$8.47
Record
47%
274-313 (587)
Invested
$416.95
Value
$416.95
PnL
-$0
Record
48%
62396-67251 (129647)
Invested
$332.27
Value
$340.37
PnL
+$8.1
Record
49%
451-468 (919)
Invested
$16.36
Value
$16.17
PnL
+$0.01
Record
54%
18479-15550 (34029)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.