Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Kansas State, while the market favors Oklahoma State (68%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Kansas State (86%) · Kansas State at 33¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Kansas State
7
Kansas State 86%
$6.5K
$93.35
32.1¢ → 32.5¢
+1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralKansas State at 33%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Oklahoma State 68%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Mature
33h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on Kansas State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR | Kansas Stateavg 32¢ | $3.5K | $3.6K | +$54.87 | 49% 441-465 (906) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Kansas Stateavg 32¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$24.69 | 54% 18308-15405 (33713) |
HI hi774cCTR | Kansas Stateavg 32¢ | $787.37 | $799.68 | +$12.3 | 46% 5254-6097 (11351) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Kansas Stateavg 32.5¢ | $320.03 | $320.26 | +$0.23 | 48% 61747-66610 (128357) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Kansas Stateavg 32.8¢ | $222.41 | $225.89 | +$3.48 | 58% 47026-33907 (80933) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100 | Kansas Stateavg 33.3¢ | $95.86 | $93.52 | -$2.35 | 69% 7246-3212 (10458) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Oklahoma Stateavg 67¢ | $17.28 | $17.41 | +$0.13 | 51% 37958-37206 (75164) |
Invested
$3,511.88
Value
$3.6K
PnL
+$54.87
Record
49%
441-465 (906)
Invested
$1,490.4
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$24.69
Record
54%
18308-15405 (33713)
Invested
$787.37
Value
$799.68
PnL
+$12.3
Record
46%
5254-6097 (11351)
Invested
$320.03
Value
$320.26
PnL
+$0.23
Record
48%
61747-66610 (128357)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$222.41
Value
$225.89
PnL
+$3.48
Record
58%
47026-33907 (80933)
Invested
$95.86
Value
$93.52
PnL
-$2.35
Record
69%
7246-3212 (10458)
Invested
$17.28
Value
$17.41
PnL
+$0.13
Record
51%
37958-37206 (75164)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
32.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
imjustkenisghey
CTRKansas State — $3.6K
HomeRunHazard
CTRKansas State — $1.5K
hi774c
CTRKansas State — $799.68
38791873984189
CTRKansas State — $320.26
VeryLucky888
CTRKansas State — $225.89
AnonymousUsername
CTRKansas State — $93.52
SnakeBall
Oklahoma State — $17.41