Spread: Oklahoma State (-8.5)
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Oklahoma State (75%) · Oklahoma State at 53¢ · $7K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Oklahoma State
4
Oklahoma State 75%
$6.6K
-$185.4
53¢ → 52.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOklahoma State at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Oklahoma Stateavg 53¢ | $6.7K | $6.5K | -$186.68 | 54% 17179-14402 (31581) |
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186<$100 | Oklahoma Stateavg 52¢ | $52 | $52.5 | +$0.5 | 46% 439-516 (955) |
 EdZachary<$100 | Oklahoma Stateavg 51¢ | $51 | $51.5 | +$0.5 | 39% 88-138 (226) |
HI hi774cCTR<$100 | Iowa Stateavg 46¢ | $5.11 | $5.39 | +$0.28 | 52% 4736-4456 (9192) |
Invested
$6,666.3
Value
$6.5K
PnL
-$186.68
Record
54%
17179-14402 (31581)
Invested
$52
Value
$52.5
PnL
+$0.5
Record
46%
439-516 (955)
EdZachary<$100Invested
$51
Value
$51.5
PnL
+$0.5
Record
39%
88-138 (226)
Invested
$5.11
Value
$5.39
PnL
+$0.28
Record
52%
4736-4456 (9192)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.