Spread: Oklahoma State (-10.5)

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Iowa State (78%) · Iowa State at 73¢ · $24K held · ended Oct 31

Oklahoma State27¢Iowa State73¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Iowa State

Consensus Traders

Iowa State 78%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$24.5K

Combined PnL

$378.72

Smart Money Entry

51.8¢ → 73¢

+41% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralIowa State at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Iowa State

7 of 9 top traders (78%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Oklahoma State27%

Iowa State73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Iowa State7 traders

Total Value$18.5K

Total Shares33,147

Combined PnL+$379.01

Oklahoma State2 traders

Total Value$14.6

Total Shares31

Combined PnL-$0.29

Iowa State — 78%Oklahoma State — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Iowa State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Oklahoma State) and the top 1000 (6 on Iowa State) disagree here.

whaleOklahoma State 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrIowa State 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedOklahoma State 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Iowa State 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Iowa Stateavg 51¢	$7.3K	$7.6K	+$234.03	54% 17200-14430 (31630)
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Iowa Stateavg 51¢	$5.7K	$5.9K	+$177.63	55% 7193-5787 (12980)
└ Iowa State leg	Iowa Stateavg 51¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$118.2
└ Oklahoma State leg	Oklahoma Stateavg 46¢	$2.7K	$2.8K	+$59.43
0X 0x0A77exmm	Iowa Stateavg 51.5¢	$4.3K	$4.4K	+$128.68	54% 2311-1998 (4309)
ME metski29	Iowa Stateavg 54¢	$4.0K	$3.9K	-$73.61	45% 309-377 (686)
JO jole24	Iowa Stateavg 51¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$70	44% 1025-1280 (2305)
HI hi774c	Iowa Stateavg 51¢	$460.49	$478.55	+$18.06	52% 4749-4468 (9217)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks	Iowa Stateavg 52¢	$148.2	$151.05	+$2.85	54% 3023-2604 (5627)
GH ghorrockARB<$100	Iowa Stateavg 52¢	$58.9	$58.9	-$0	57% 13944-10725 (24669)
└ Iowa State leg	Iowa Stateavg 52¢	$30.63	$35.63	+$5.01
└ Oklahoma State leg	Oklahoma Stateavg 48¢	$28.27	$23.27	-$5.01
TimeTraveler<$100	Iowa Stateavg 54¢	$54	$53	-$1	42% 1968-2772 (4740)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Iowa Stateavg 51.9¢	$47.85	$48.88	+$1.03	58% 28900-21323 (50223)
└ Iowa State leg	Iowa Stateavg 51.9¢	$24.39	$24.91	+$0.52
└ Oklahoma State leg	Oklahoma Stateavg 46¢	$23.46	$23.97	+$0.51
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Oklahoma Stateavg 46¢	$9.66	$9.87	+$0.32	50% 7049-7061 (14110)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Oklahoma Stateavg 53¢	$5.33	$4.73	-$0.6	48% 8249-8767 (17016)

HomeRunHazard

Iowa State

Invested

$7,349.08

Value

$7.6K

PnL

+$234.03

Record

54%

17200-14430 (31630)

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Iowa State

Invested

$5,747.67

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$177.63

Record

55%

7193-5787 (12980)

Both legs:

Iowa State$3,014.0951¢+$118.2

Oklahoma State$2,733.5846¢+$59.43

0x0A77exmm

Iowa State

Invested

$4,300.53

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$128.68

Record

54%

2311-1998 (4309)

metski29

Iowa State

Invested

$3,975

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$73.61

Record

45%

309-377 (686)

jole24

Iowa State

Invested

$1,785

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$70

Record

44%

1025-1280 (2305)

hi774c

Iowa State

Invested

$460.49

Value

$478.55

PnL

+$18.06

Record

52%

4749-4468 (9217)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks

Iowa State

Invested

$148.2

Value

$151.05

PnL

+$2.85

Record

54%

3023-2604 (5627)

ghorrockARB<$100

Iowa State

Invested

$58.9

Value

$58.9

PnL

-$0

Record

57%

13944-10725 (24669)

Both legs:

Iowa State$30.6352¢+$5.01

Oklahoma State$28.2748¢-$5.01

TimeTraveler<$100

Iowa State

Invested

$54

Value

$53

PnL

-$1

Record

42%

1968-2772 (4740)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Iowa State

Invested

$47.85

Value

$48.88

PnL

+$1.03

Record

58%

28900-21323 (50223)

Both legs:

Iowa State$24.3951.9¢+$0.52

Oklahoma State$23.4646¢+$0.51

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Oklahoma State

Invested

$9.66

Value

$9.87

PnL

+$0.32

Record

50%

7049-7061 (14110)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Oklahoma State

Invested

$5.33

Value

$4.73

PnL

-$0.6

Record

48%

8249-8767 (17016)

Research grade

NeutralIowa State at 73%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Iowa State

7 of 9 top traders (78%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Iowa State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Oklahoma State) and the top 1000 (6 on Iowa State) disagree here.

whaleOklahoma State 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrIowa State 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedOklahoma State 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Iowa State 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Iowa State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.0%

73.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$33.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

133.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.