Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Iowa State, while the market favors Oklahoma State (75%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Oklahoma State vs. Iowa State
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Iowa State (75%) · Iowa State at 25¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Iowa State
4
Iowa State 75%
$2.5K
$37.5
24¢ → 25¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidIowa State at 25%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Oklahoma State 75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Iowa Stateavg 24¢ | $7.3K | $1.8K | +$36.5 | 54% 17179-14402 (31581) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR | Iowa Stateavg 24¢ | $331.44 | $331.44 | +$0 | 74% 6673-2396 (9069) |
HE HerdoniaCTR | Iowa Stateavg 24¢ | $270.86 | $270.86 | +$0 | 54% 3357-2905 (6262) |
 0xheavy888 | Oklahoma Stateavg 75¢ | $150 | $150 | +$1 | 55% 7124-5713 (12837) |
Invested
$7,300.17
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$36.5
Record
54%
17179-14402 (31581)
Invested
$331.44
Value
$331.44
PnL
+$0
Record
74%
6673-2396 (9069)
Invested
$270.86
Value
$270.86
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
3357-2905 (6262)
0xheavy888Invested
$150
Value
$150
PnL
+$1
Record
55%
7124-5713 (12837)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
25.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.