Ohio State vs. USC: O/U 51.5
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 54¢ · $15K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 33%
$14.7K
-$18.6
53¢ → 53.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 EdZachary | Underavg 53¢ | $10.3K | $10.4K | +$97.13 | 39% 88-138 (226) |
 heyboy800 | Underavg 53¢ | $2.5K | $2.4K | -$144 | 61% 951-598 (1549) |
FO Forecastication2CTR | Overavg 47¢ | $933.42 | $923.49 | -$9.93 | 50% 7037-7035 (14072) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Overavg 48¢ | $822.31 | $856.58 | +$34.26 | 54% 17179-14402 (31581) |
PU purplegattoCTR<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $70.87 | $73.82 | +$2.95 | 50% 5883-5975 (11858) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $48.02 | $49 | +$0.98 | 58% 28818-21252 (50070) |
EdZacharyInvested
$10,296.2
Value
$10.4K
PnL
+$97.13
Record
39%
88-138 (226)
heyboy800Invested
$2,544
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$144
Record
61%
951-598 (1549)
Invested
$933.42
Value
$923.49
PnL
-$9.93
Record
50%
7037-7035 (14072)
Invested
$822.31
Value
$856.58
PnL
+$34.26
Record
54%
17179-14402 (31581)
Invested
$70.87
Value
$73.82
PnL
+$2.95
Record
50%
5883-5975 (11858)
Invested
$48.02
Value
$49
PnL
+$0.98
Record
58%
28818-21252 (50070)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.