Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (54%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Ohio State vs. USC: O/U 49.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 46¢ · $7K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
4
Under 75%
$7.2K
$20
45.5¢ → 46¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 46%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 54%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 45.7¢ | $2.9K | $2.9K | +$18.53 | 59% 45889-32231 (78120) |
JA JAMJAMJAM4 | Overavg 55¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | -$18.17 | 73% 3585-1320 (4905) |
 scootergeneCTR | Underavg 45¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | +$19.65 | 54% 374-322 (696) |
 PainfulvoidCTR | Underavg 46¢ | $558.75 | $558.75 | +$0 | 63% 1756-1023 (2779) |
Invested
$2,885.04
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$18.53
Record
59%
45889-32231 (78120)
Invested
$1,999.79
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$18.17
Record
73%
3585-1320 (4905)
scootergeneCTRInvested
$1,767.95
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$19.65
Record
54%
374-322 (696)
PainfulvoidCTRInvested
$558.75
Value
$558.75
PnL
+$0
Record
63%
1756-1023 (2779)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.