Spread: Ohio State (-6.5)

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Ohio State (33%) · Ohio State at 51¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 31

Ohio State51¢USC49¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Ohio State

Consensus Traders

Ohio State 33%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$4.25

Smart Money Entry

51¢ → 50.5¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOhio State at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ohio State

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Ohio State51%

USC50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ohio State2 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,365

Combined PnL-$0.9

USC4 traders

Total Value$609.3

Total Shares1,243

Combined PnL+$5.15

Ohio State — 33%USC — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x8Bb006d1bB8b1C5735DA79E81637e3dad6E3ca79-1768601841360	Ohio Stateavg 51¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$0.77	46% 134-158 (292)
VeryLucky888CTR	USCavg 48.7¢	$584	$578.2	+$4.2	58% 41846-30383 (72229)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	USCavg 49¢	$19.39	$19.39	-$0	58% 28668-21156 (49824)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	USCavg 44¢	$7.86	$8.75	+$0.89	50% 33353-32915 (66268)
GG GGLPL<$100	Ohio Stateavg 52¢	$6.92	$6.79	-$0.13	50% 678-674 (1352)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	USCavg 48¢	$2.9	$2.96	+$0.06	57% 13779-10552 (24331)

0x8Bb006d1bB8b1C5735DA79E81637e3dad6E3ca79-1768601841360

Ohio State

Invested

$1,200

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$0.77

Record

46%

134-158 (292)

VeryLucky888CTR

USC

Invested

$584

Value

$578.2

PnL

+$4.2

Record

58%

41846-30383 (72229)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

USC

Invested

$19.39

Value

$19.39

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

28668-21156 (49824)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

USC

Invested

$7.86

Value

$8.75

PnL

+$0.89

Record

50%

33353-32915 (66268)

GGLPL<$100

Ohio State

Invested

$6.92

Value

$6.79

PnL

-$0.13

Record

50%

678-674 (1352)

ghorrockCTR<$100

USC

Invested

$2.9

Value

$2.96

PnL

+$0.06

Record

57%

13779-10552 (24331)

Research grade

NeutralOhio State at 51%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Ohio State

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ohio State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.