Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Ohio State, while the market favors USC (76%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Ohio State (-5.5)

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Ohio State (60%) · Ohio State at 24¢ · $906 held · ended Oct 31

Ohio State24¢USC76¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Ohio State

Consensus Traders

Ohio State 60%

Total Value

$906.34

Combined PnL

-$6.22

Smart Money Entry

53.6¢ → 24¢

-55% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidOhio State at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ohio State

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors USC 76%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Ohio State24%

USC76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ohio State3 traders

Total Value$698.93

Total Shares1,271

Combined PnL+$17.64

USC2 traders

Total Value$207.41

Total Shares378

Combined PnL-$23.86

Ohio State — 60%USC — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041CTR	Ohio Stateavg 54¢	$420	$427.78	+$7.78	58% 224-165 (389)
JU justaluckydude	USCavg 61¢	$204.17	$180.9	-$23.27	53% 10816-9436 (20252)
VeryLucky888CTR	Ohio Stateavg 53¢	$530	$135.85	+$4.94	58% 42202-30652 (72854)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR	Ohio Stateavg 53¢	$130.38	$135.3	+$4.92	50% 3891-3854 (7745)
GH ghorrock<$100	USCavg 46¢	$27.09	$26.51	-$0.59	57% 13944-10725 (24669)

0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041CTR

Ohio State

Invested

$420

Value

$427.78

PnL

+$7.78

Record

58%

224-165 (389)

justaluckydude

USC

Invested

$204.17

Value

$180.9

PnL

-$23.27

Record

53%

10816-9436 (20252)

VeryLucky888CTR

Ohio State

Invested

$530

Value

$135.85

PnL

+$4.94

Record

58%

42202-30652 (72854)

NatoAlfistaCTR

Ohio State

Invested

$130.38

Value

$135.3

PnL

+$4.92

Record

50%

3891-3854 (7745)

ghorrock<$100

USC

Invested

$27.09

Value

$26.51

PnL

-$0.59

Record

57%

13944-10725 (24669)

Research grade

AvoidOhio State at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Ohio State

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors USC 76%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ohio State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance25.9%

24.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$285.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

385.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.