Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold USC, while the market favors Ohio State (70%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Ohio State vs. USC
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold USC (43%) · USC at 31¢ · $10K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
USC
7
USC 43%
$10.1K
-$130.23
31¢ → 30.5¢
-2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUSC at 31%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Ohio State 70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on USC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | USCavg 31¢ | $4.1K | $4.0K | -$65.98 | 54% 17179-14402 (31581) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR | USCavg 30.9¢ | $3.2K | $3.1K | -$41.71 | 73% 6703-2419 (9122) |
0X 0x8Bb006d1bB8b1C5735DA79E81637e3dad6E3ca79-1768601841360 | Ohio Stateavg 69¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | -$14.49 | 46% 135-158 (293) |
HE HerdoniaCTR | USCavg 31¢ | $512.98 | $504.7 | -$8.27 | 54% 3357-2905 (6262) |
 0xheavy888 | Ohio Stateavg 69¢ | $217.63 | $219.21 | +$1.58 | 55% 7155-5744 (12899) |
 TimeTraveler | Ohio Stateavg 70¢ | $175 | $173.75 | -$1.25 | 41% 1964-2771 (4735) |
GG GGLPL<$100 | Ohio Stateavg 69¢ | $13.75 | $13.55 | -$0.1 | 50% 682-675 (1357) |
Invested
$4,091
Value
$4.0K
PnL
-$65.98
Record
54%
17179-14402 (31581)
Invested
$3,186.99
Value
$3.1K
PnL
-$41.71
Record
73%
6703-2419 (9122)
Invested
$2,000
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$14.49
Record
46%
135-158 (293)
Invested
$512.98
Value
$504.7
PnL
-$8.27
Record
54%
3357-2905 (6262)
0xheavy888Invested
$217.63
Value
$219.21
PnL
+$1.58
Record
55%
7155-5744 (12899)
TimeTravelerInvested
$175
Value
$173.75
PnL
-$1.25
Record
41%
1964-2771 (4735)
Invested
$13.75
Value
$13.55
PnL
-$0.1
Record
50%
682-675 (1357)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
30.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.