Ohio vs. Miami (OH): O/U 45.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 57¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 50%
$10.8K
-$472.22
54.5¢ → 57.5¢
+6% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+10 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 54.4¢ | $8.7K | $8.1K | -$656.51 | 57% 3075-2312 (5387) |
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR | Underavg 46¢ | $2.1K | $2.3K | +$181.76 | — 3-6 (9) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Underavg 45¢ | $199.43 | $221.59 | +$22.16 | 49% 220-229 (449) |
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080 | Overavg 56¢ | $224 | $200 | -$24 | 10% 89-787 (876) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $22.5 | $25 | +$2.5 | 18% 135-596 (731) |
CM cm2897<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $12.5 | $14.37 | +$1.87 | 49% 1097-1127 (2224) |
Invested
$8,733.68
Value
$8.1K
PnL
-$656.51
Record
57%
3075-2312 (5387)
Invested
$2,090.19
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$181.76
Record
—
3-6 (9)
Invested
$199.43
Value
$221.59
PnL
+$22.16
Record
49%
220-229 (449)
Invested
$224
Value
$200
PnL
-$24
Record
10%
89-787 (876)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$22.5
Value
$25
PnL
+$2.5
Record
18%
135-596 (731)
Invested
$12.5
Value
$14.37
PnL
+$1.87
Record
49%
1097-1127 (2224)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.