Spread: Miami (OH) (-2.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Ohio (60%) · Ohio at 86¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Ohio
5
Ohio 60%
$4.6K
$23.74
56¢ → 86¢
+54% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOhio at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Ohio. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI big8betz | Ohioavg 56¢ | $2.4K | $2.4K | -$42.86 | 50% 67-66 (133) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Miami (OH)avg 44¢ | $2.1K | $2.2K | +$47.7 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Ohioavg 55¢ | $24.75 | $39.15 | +$14.4 | 49% 446-472 (918) |
PR primm<$100 | Ohioavg 55¢ | $7.7 | $12.18 | +$4.48 | 61% 855-553 (1408) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Miami (OH)avg 44¢ | $0.81 | $0.83 | +$0.02 | 55% 399-332 (731) |
Invested
$2,400
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$42.86
Record
50%
67-66 (133)
Invested
$2,123.53
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$47.7
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
Invested
$24.75
Value
$39.15
PnL
+$14.4
Record
49%
446-472 (918)
Invested
$7.7
Value
$12.18
PnL
+$4.48
Record
61%
855-553 (1408)
Invested
$0.81
Value
$0.83
PnL
+$0.02
Record
55%
399-332 (731)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.