Spread: Ohio (-7.5)
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Ohio (75%) · Ohio at 56¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Ohio
4
Ohio 75%
1 arb excluded
$1.6K
$88.2
65¢ → 55.5¢
-15% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOhio at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Ohio. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PR primmCTR | Miami (OH)avg 35¢ | $441 | $529.2 | +$88.2 | 61% 855-553 (1408) |
 RN1 | Ohioavg 65¢ | $496.6 | $496.6 | +$0 | 58% 3828-2805 (6633) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Miami (OH)avg 36¢ | $344.6 | $339.7 | -$4.9 | 48% 959-1032 (1991) |
| └ Miami (OH) leg | Miami (OH)avg 36¢ | $175.78 | $170.84 | -$4.93 | |
| └ Ohio leg | Ohioavg 65¢ | $168.83 | $168.86 | +$0.03 | |
65 6512395314597884 | Ohioavg 65¢ | $190.06 | $190.06 | +$0 | 51% 3172-3073 (6245) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Ohioavg 65¢ | $25.35 | $25.35 | +$0 | 49% 446-472 (918) |
Invested
$441
Value
$529.2
PnL
+$88.2
Record
61%
855-553 (1408)
RN1Invested
$496.6
Value
$496.6
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
3828-2805 (6633)
Invested
$344.6
Value
$339.7
PnL
-$4.9
Record
48%
959-1032 (1991)
Both legs:
Invested
$190.06
Value
$190.06
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
3172-3073 (6245)
Invested
$25.35
Value
$25.35
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
446-472 (918)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.