Spread: Ohio (-1.5)

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Miami (OH) (91%) · Miami (OH) at 52¢ · $27K held · ends Nov 11

Ohio49¢Miami (OH)51¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Miami (OH)

Consensus Traders

Miami (OH) 91%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$27.0K

Combined PnL

$251.06

Smart Money Entry

50.3¢ → 51.5¢

+2% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralMiami (OH) at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Miami (OH)

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Ohio49%

Miami (OH)52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Miami (OH)10 traders

Total Value$22.8K

Total Shares44,551

Combined PnL+$296.96

Ohio1 trader

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares4,590

Combined PnL-$45.9

Miami (OH) — 91%Ohio — 9%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

91% of non-arb traders are on Miami (OH). Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMiami (OH) 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Miami (OH) 91% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Miami (OH)avg 50.4¢	$12.9K	$13.1K	+$156.79	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Miami (OH)avg 51¢	$4.2K	$4.2K	+$0	49% 488-513 (1001)
HI hi774c	Miami (OH)avg 50¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	+$63.66	8% 37-422 (459)
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Ohioavg 49¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	-$45.9	61% 899-577 (1476)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Miami (OH)avg 49.6¢	$2.2K	$2.0K	+$57.06	48% 939-1010 (1949)
└ Miami (OH) leg	Miami (OH)avg 49.6¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$50.6
└ Ohio leg	Ohioavg 48.1¢	$843.04	$849.5	+$6.46
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Miami (OH)avg 49¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$60.67	59% 422-288 (710)
SN SnakeBall	Miami (OH)avg 49.9¢	$279.79	$286.2	+$6.41	47% 149-168 (317)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Miami (OH)avg 50¢	$200	$204	+$4	10% 85-781 (866)
RL RLWG<$100	Miami (OH)avg 50¢	$94.2	$96.65	+$2.45	68% 1593-744 (2337)
SE sentrio<$100	Miami (OH)avg 50¢	$65.79	$67.1	+$1.32	32% 184-398 (582)
PA Pan9X<$100	Miami (OH)avg 49.8¢	$45.01	$46.1	+$1.09	49% 440-464 (904)
GH ghorrock<$100	Miami (OH)avg 50.3¢	$34.35	$28.06	+$0.57	54% 358-310 (668)

HomeRunHazard

Miami (OH)

Invested

$12,919.86

Value

$13.1K

PnL

+$156.79

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Miami (OH)

Invested

$4,225.15

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

488-513 (1001)

hi774c

Miami (OH)

Invested

$3,183

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$63.66

Record

37-422 (459)

darkumbreon88CTR

Ohio

Invested

$2,249.02

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$45.9

Record

61%

899-577 (1476)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Miami (OH)

Invested

$2,248.98

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$57.06

Record

48%

939-1010 (1949)

Both legs:

Miami (OH)$1,068.9649.6¢+$50.6

Ohio$843.0448.1¢+$6.46

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Miami (OH)

Invested

$1,486.49

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$60.67

Record

59%

422-288 (710)

SnakeBall

Miami (OH)

Invested

$279.79

Value

$286.2

PnL

+$6.41

Record

47%

149-168 (317)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Miami (OH)

Invested

$200

Value

$204

PnL

+$4

Record

10%

85-781 (866)

RLWG<$100

Miami (OH)

Invested

$94.2

Value

$96.65

PnL

+$2.45

Record

68%

1593-744 (2337)

sentrio<$100

Miami (OH)

Invested

$65.79

Value

$67.1

PnL

+$1.32

Record

32%

184-398 (582)

Pan9X<$100

Miami (OH)

Invested

$45.01

Value

$46.1

PnL

+$1.09

Record

49%

440-464 (904)

ghorrock<$100

Miami (OH)

Invested

$34.35

Value

$28.06

PnL

+$0.57

Record

54%

358-310 (668)

Research grade

NeutralMiami (OH) at 52%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Miami (OH)

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

91% of non-arb traders are on Miami (OH). Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMiami (OH) 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Miami (OH) 91% · 11

Aligned

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Miami (OH) wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.