Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Ohio, while the market favors Miami (OH) (63%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Ohio (-13.5)
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Ohio (50%) · Ohio at 38¢ · $370 held · ended Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Ohio
6
Ohio 50%
$369.51
-$1.29
51.7¢ → 37.5¢
-27% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOhio at 38%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Miami (OH) 63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Ohio. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PR primmCTR | Ohioavg 61¢ | $244 | $244 | +$0 | 61% 855-553 (1408) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Ohioavg 19¢ | $22.46 | $72.11 | +$49.65 | 28% 304-772 (1076) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Miami (OH)avg 81¢ | $48.41 | $22.71 | -$25.7 | 48% 959-1032 (1991) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Miami (OH)avg 81¢ | $36.45 | $17.1 | -$19.35 | 49% 446-472 (918) |
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100 | Ohioavg 62¢ | $8.59 | $8.48 | -$0.11 | 51% 3172-3073 (6245) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Miami (OH)avg 81¢ | $10.89 | $5.11 | -$5.78 | 55% 399-332 (731) |
Invested
$244
Value
$244
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
855-553 (1408)
Invested
$22.46
Value
$72.11
PnL
+$49.65
Record
28%
304-772 (1076)
Invested
$48.41
Value
$22.71
PnL
-$25.7
Record
48%
959-1032 (1991)
Invested
$36.45
Value
$17.1
PnL
-$19.35
Record
49%
446-472 (918)
Invested
$8.59
Value
$8.48
PnL
-$0.11
Record
51%
3172-3073 (6245)
Invested
$10.89
Value
$5.11
PnL
-$5.78
Record
55%
399-332 (731)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.