Spread: Ohio (-10.5)

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Miami (OH) (57%) · Miami (OH) at 60¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 11

Ohio41¢Miami (OH)59¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Miami (OH)

Consensus Traders

Miami (OH) 57%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.6K

Combined PnL

-$39.77

Smart Money Entry

53.8¢ → 59.5¢

+11% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralMiami (OH) at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Miami (OH)

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Ohio41%

Miami (OH)60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Miami (OH)4 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares4,081

Combined PnL+$160.36

Ohio3 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares3,955

Combined PnL-$200.12

Miami (OH) — 57%Ohio — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ME metski29	Miami (OH)avg 57¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$47.43	0% 0-48 (48)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Ohioavg 43¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$12.59	54% 1660-1438 (3098)
RN1ARB<$100	Ohioavg 56.1¢	$796.66	$865.17	+$68.51	58% 3828-2805 (6633)
└ Ohio leg	Ohioavg 56.1¢	$535.63	$434.07	-$101.56
└ Miami (OH) leg	Miami (OH)avg 33¢	$261.03	$431.1	+$170.07
PA PacersThreeandahalfCTR	Ohioavg 67¢	$808.69	$494.87	-$313.82	62% 1003-623 (1626)
BI biying88888	Miami (OH)avg 43¢	$384.42	$491.7	+$107.28	27% 63-170 (233)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Ohioavg 43¢	$419.56	$357.28	-$18	48% 959-1032 (1991)
└ Ohio leg	Ohioavg 43¢	$190.92	$193.14	+$2.22
└ Miami (OH) leg	Miami (OH)avg 58.1¢	$168.8	$164.14	-$20.22
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Ohioavg 47.5¢	$270.15	$303.95	+$33.8	51% 3172-3073 (6245)
└ Ohio leg	Ohioavg 47.5¢	$190	$174	-$16
└ Miami (OH) leg	Miami (OH)avg 34.8¢	$80.15	$129.95	+$49.8
MA MadridTimeCTR	Ohioavg 23¢	$52.85	$153.95	+$101.1	29% 307-748 (1055)
PA Pan9X<$100	Miami (OH)avg 33¢	$25.84	$15.45	+$7.7	49% 446-472 (918)
GH ghorrock<$100	Miami (OH)avg 77¢	$4.06	$2	-$2.06	55% 399-332 (731)

metski29

Miami (OH)

Invested

$1,802.42

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$47.43

Record

0-48 (48)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Ohio

Invested

$1,082.8

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$12.59

Record

54%

1660-1438 (3098)

RN1ARB<$100

Ohio

Invested

$796.66

Value

$865.17

PnL

+$68.51

Record

58%

3828-2805 (6633)

Both legs:

Ohio$535.6356.1¢-$101.56

Miami (OH)$261.0333¢+$170.07

PacersThreeandahalfCTR

Ohio

Invested

$808.69

Value

$494.87

PnL

-$313.82

Record

62%

1003-623 (1626)

biying88888

Miami (OH)

Invested

$384.42

Value

$491.7

PnL

+$107.28

Record

27%

63-170 (233)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Ohio

Invested

$419.56

Value

$357.28

PnL

-$18

Record

48%

959-1032 (1991)

Both legs:

Ohio$190.9243¢+$2.22

Miami (OH)$168.858.1¢-$20.22

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Ohio

Invested

$270.15

Value

$303.95

PnL

+$33.8

Record

51%

3172-3073 (6245)

Both legs:

Ohio$19047.5¢-$16

Miami (OH)$80.1534.8¢+$49.8

MadridTimeCTR

Ohio

Invested

$52.85

Value

$153.95

PnL

+$101.1

Record

29%

307-748 (1055)

Pan9X<$100

Miami (OH)

Invested

$25.84

Value

$15.45

PnL

+$7.7

Record

49%

446-472 (918)

ghorrock<$100

Miami (OH)

Invested

$4.06

Value

PnL

-$2.06

Record

55%

399-332 (731)

Research grade

NeutralMiami (OH) at 60%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Miami (OH)

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Miami (OH) wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.