Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Miami (OH), while the market favors Ohio (52%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Ohio vs. Miami (OH)

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Miami (OH) (63%) · Miami (OH) at 49¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 11

Ohio52¢Miami (OH)48¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Miami (OH)

Consensus Traders

Miami (OH) 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

$9.39

Smart Money Entry

48.1¢ → 48.5¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralMiami (OH) at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Miami (OH)

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Ohio 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Ohio52%

Miami (OH)49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Miami (OH)5 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares3,986

Combined PnL+$8.69

Ohio3 traders

Total Value$153.2

Total Shares284

Combined PnL+$0.7

Miami (OH) — 63%Ohio — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Miami (OH). Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpMiami (OH) 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrMiami (OH) 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Miami (OH) 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Ohioavg 51.7¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$0.33	48% 603-645 (1248)
└ Ohio leg	Ohioavg 51.7¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$5.76
└ Miami (OH) leg	Miami (OH)avg 48¢	$598.52	$604.6	+$6.09
nigiri99CTR	Miami (OH)avg 48.2¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$9.49	52% 92-86 (178)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Miami (OH)avg 48¢	$245.59	$249.22	-$2.56	57% 3010-2261 (5271)
RL RLWG<$100	Ohioavg 52¢	$96.2	$95.28	-$0.92	69% 1577-725 (2302)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Miami (OH)avg 47¢	$47.53	$49.26	+$1.73	46% 124-145 (269)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Ohioavg 50¢	$34.11	$34.79	+$1.71	4% 21-541 (562)
GH ghorrock<$100	Ohioavg 52¢	$23.22	$23.14	-$0.08	51% 197-186 (383)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	Miami (OH)avg 48¢	$17.28	$17.46	+$0.18	6% 27-405 (432)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Miami (OH)avg 48.2¢	$10.16	$10.26	-$0.16	27% 133-354 (487)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Ohio

Invested

$1,871.11

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$0.33

Record

48%

603-645 (1248)

Both legs:

Ohio$1,272.5951.7¢-$5.76

Miami (OH)$598.5248¢+$6.09

nigiri99CTR

Miami (OH)

Invested

$1,598.77

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$9.49

Record

52%

92-86 (178)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Miami (OH)

Invested

$245.59

Value

$249.22

PnL

-$2.56

Record

57%

3010-2261 (5271)

RLWG<$100

Ohio

Invested

$96.2

Value

$95.28

PnL

-$0.92

Record

69%

1577-725 (2302)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Miami (OH)

Invested

$47.53

Value

$49.26

PnL

+$1.73

Record

46%

124-145 (269)

darkumbreon88<$100

Ohio

Invested

$34.11

Value

$34.79

PnL

+$1.71

Record

21-541 (562)

ghorrock<$100

Ohio

Invested

$23.22

Value

$23.14

PnL

-$0.08

Record

51%

197-186 (383)

hi774cCTR<$100

Miami (OH)

Invested

$17.28

Value

$17.46

PnL

+$0.18

Record

27-405 (432)

sentrioCTR<$100

Miami (OH)

Invested

$10.16

Value

$10.26

PnL

-$0.16

Record

27%

133-354 (487)

Research grade

NeutralMiami (OH) at 49%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Miami (OH)

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Ohio 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Miami (OH). Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpMiami (OH) 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrMiami (OH) 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Miami (OH) 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Miami (OH) wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.