Northwestern vs. Oregon: O/U 49.5

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 81¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 31

Over81¢Under19¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 60%

Total Value

$6.9K

Combined PnL

-$51.57

Smart Money Entry

45.7¢ → 80.5¢

+76% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over81%

Under20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares8,540

Combined PnL-$105.34

Under2 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares5,423

Combined PnL+$53.77

Over — 60%Under — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 45¢	$3.7K	$3.6K	-$78.93	54% 17179-14402 (31581)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR	Underavg 55¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$54	54% 4896-4121 (9017)
JU justaluckydude	Overavg 64¢	$225.12	$202.95	-$22.17	53% 10788-9397 (20185)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Overavg 46¢	$97.52	$93.28	-$4.24	54% 2996-2576 (5572)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 57¢	$13.11	$12.88	-$0.23	58% 28788-21225 (50013)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$3,676.95

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$78.93

Record

54%

17179-14402 (31581)

WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR

Under

Invested

$2,970

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$54

Record

54%

4896-4121 (9017)

justaluckydude

Over

Invested

$225.12

Value

$202.95

PnL

-$22.17

Record

53%

10788-9397 (20185)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Over

Invested

$97.52

Value

$93.28

PnL

-$4.24

Record

54%

2996-2576 (5572)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.11

Value

$12.88

PnL

-$0.23

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 81%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.3%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.