Northwestern vs. Oregon: O/U 47.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 52¢ · $8K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 60%
$8.5K
$78.35
51¢ → 51.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HI hi774c | Overavg 51¢ | $5.0K | $5.0K | +$49.02 | 52% 4733-4453 (9186) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 51.1¢ | $2.8K | $2.8K | +$23.87 | 54% 17179-14402 (31581) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 47.9¢ | $506.95 | $503.05 | +$5.96 | 58% 41980-30479 (72459) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100 | Overavg 52¢ | $74.88 | $74.16 | -$0.72 | 54% 2992-2575 (5567) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 48.1¢ | $29.37 | $29.59 | +$0.21 | 58% 28754-21204 (49958) |
Invested
$5,000
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$49.02
Record
52%
4733-4453 (9186)
Invested
$2,783.16
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$23.87
Record
54%
17179-14402 (31581)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$506.95
Value
$503.05
PnL
+$5.96
Record
58%
41980-30479 (72459)
Invested
$74.88
Value
$74.16
PnL
-$0.72
Record
54%
2992-2575 (5567)
Invested
$29.37
Value
$29.59
PnL
+$0.21
Record
58%
28754-21204 (49958)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.