Spread: Oregon (-6.5)
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Northwestern (50%) · Northwestern at 83¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Northwestern
6
Northwestern 50%
$1.2K
$0.96
57.2¢ → 83¢
+45% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNorthwestern at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Northwesternavg 56.6¢ | $885.31 | $890.83 | +$5.52 | 54% 17179-14402 (31581) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Oregonavg 44¢ | $235.73 | $230.37 | -$5.36 | 50% 33488-33047 (66535) |
JU justaluckydude<$100 | Northwesternavg 78¢ | $30.42 | $32.37 | +$1.95 | 53% 10788-9397 (20185) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100 | Northwesternavg 58¢ | $23.78 | $23.37 | -$0.41 | 54% 2996-2576 (5572) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Oregonavg 44¢ | $5.15 | $5.04 | -$0.12 | 57% 13860-10628 (24488) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Oregonavg 22¢ | $2.77 | $2.14 | -$0.63 | 49% 8081-8480 (16561) |
Invested
$885.31
Value
$890.83
PnL
+$5.52
Record
54%
17179-14402 (31581)
Invested
$235.73
Value
$230.37
PnL
-$5.36
Record
50%
33488-33047 (66535)
Invested
$30.42
Value
$32.37
PnL
+$1.95
Record
53%
10788-9397 (20185)
Invested
$23.78
Value
$23.37
PnL
-$0.41
Record
54%
2996-2576 (5572)
Invested
$5.15
Value
$5.04
PnL
-$0.12
Record
57%
13860-10628 (24488)
Invested
$2.77
Value
$2.14
PnL
-$0.63
Record
49%
8081-8480 (16561)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.