Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Oregon, while the market favors Northwestern (80%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Oregon (-4.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Oregon (67%) · Oregon at 20¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Oregon
6
Oregon 67%
$5.3K
-$42.26
48.8¢ → 20¢
-59% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidOregon at 20%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Northwestern 80%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA MastermoneyCTR | Oregonavg 49¢ | $3.0K | $2.8K | -$181.62 | 47% 213-241 (454) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Northwesternavg 51¢ | $2.3K | $2.4K | +$134.64 | 54% 17179-14402 (31581) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100 | Northwesternavg 52¢ | $61.36 | $63.72 | +$2.36 | 54% 2996-2576 (5572) |
 TimeTravelerCTR<$100 | Oregonavg 44¢ | $44 | $46 | +$2 | 41% 1964-2771 (4735) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Oregonavg 48¢ | $18.65 | $17.87 | -$0.78 | 50% 33488-33047 (66535) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Oregonavg 9.5¢ | $1.03 | $2.16 | +$1.13 | 49% 8081-8480 (16561) |
Invested
$2,966.41
Value
$2.8K
PnL
-$181.62
Record
47%
213-241 (454)
Invested
$2,288.82
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$134.64
Record
54%
17179-14402 (31581)
Invested
$61.36
Value
$63.72
PnL
+$2.36
Record
54%
2996-2576 (5572)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100Invested
$44
Value
$46
PnL
+$2
Record
41%
1964-2771 (4735)
Invested
$18.65
Value
$17.87
PnL
-$0.78
Record
50%
33488-33047 (66535)
Invested
$1.03
Value
$2.16
PnL
+$1.13
Record
49%
8081-8480 (16561)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
20.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.