Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Northwestern, while the market favors Oregon (52%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Oregon (-3.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Northwestern (60%) · Northwestern at 49¢ · $9K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Northwestern
5
Northwestern 60%
1 arb excluded
$9.0K
$230.69
48¢ → 48.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNorthwestern at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Oregon 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HI hi774cCTR | Northwesternavg 48¢ | $5.9K | $6.0K | +$152.71 | 52% 4715-4427 (9142) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Oregonavg 49¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$71.58 | 54% 17123-14335 (31458) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Oregonavg 49.2¢ | $1.1K | $873.97 | +$33.54 | 46% 8006-9466 (17472) |
| └ Oregon leg | Oregonavg 49.2¢ | $428.99 | $448.63 | +$29.13 | |
| └ Northwestern leg | Northwesternavg 48¢ | $420.93 | $425.34 | +$4.4 | |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Northwesternavg 48¢ | $480 | $485 | +$5 | 58% 41515-30150 (71665) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Oregonavg 49.5¢ | $58.31 | $60.67 | +$2.36 | 57% 13655-10447 (24102) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Northwesternavg 50¢ | $31.5 | $30.56 | -$0.95 | 58% 28428-20989 (49417) |
Invested
$5,881.45
Value
$6.0K
PnL
+$152.71
Record
52%
4715-4427 (9142)
Invested
$1,402.88
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$71.58
Record
54%
17123-14335 (31458)
Invested
$1,116.22
Value
$873.97
PnL
+$33.54
Record
46%
8006-9466 (17472)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$480
Value
$485
PnL
+$5
Record
58%
41515-30150 (71665)
Invested
$58.31
Value
$60.67
PnL
+$2.36
Record
57%
13655-10447 (24102)
Invested
$31.5
Value
$30.56
PnL
-$0.95
Record
58%
28428-20989 (49417)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.