Northwestern vs. Oregon

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Oregon (40%) · Oregon at 64¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 31

Northwestern37¢Oregon63¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Oregon

Consensus Traders

Oregon 40%

Total Value

$6.3K

Combined PnL

$80.34

Smart Money Entry

62.4¢ → 63.5¢

+2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOregon at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Oregon

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Northwestern37%

Oregon64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Oregon2 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares8,232

Combined PnL+$91.74

Northwestern3 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,917

Combined PnL-$11.41

Oregon — 40%Northwestern — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Oregon. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNorthwestern 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpNorthwestern 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrOregon 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Northwestern 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI lightotunnel35	Oregonavg 62¢	$3.1K	$3.2K	+$75.87	55% 60-49 (109)
JA JAMJAMJAM4	Oregonavg 63¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$15.87	73% 3585-1319 (4904)
HE HerdoniaCTR	Northwesternavg 37¢	$822.91	$811.79	-$11.12	54% 3357-2905 (6262)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Northwesternavg 37¢	$235.32	$235.32	-$0	74% 6673-2396 (9069)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Northwesternavg 38¢	$21.66	$21.09	-$0.29	54% 2988-2575 (5563)

lightotunnel35

Oregon

Invested

$3,135.74

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$75.87

Record

55%

60-49 (109)

JAMJAMJAM4

Oregon

Invested

$1,999.62

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$15.87

Record

73%

3585-1319 (4904)

HerdoniaCTR

Northwestern

Invested

$822.91

Value

$811.79

PnL

-$11.12

Record

54%

3357-2905 (6262)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Northwestern

Invested

$235.32

Value

$235.32

PnL

-$0

Record

74%

6673-2396 (9069)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Northwestern

Invested

$21.66

Value

$21.09

PnL

-$0.29

Record

54%

2988-2575 (5563)

Research grade

NeutralOregon at 64%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Oregon

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Oregon. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNorthwestern 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpNorthwestern 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrOregon 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Northwestern 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Oregon wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.