Northwestern vs. Ohio State: O/U 45.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (56%) · Under at 51¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14

Over50¢Under50¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 56%

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

-$66.34

Smart Money Entry

53¢ → 50.5¢

-5% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares4,165

Combined PnL-$66.27

Over4 traders

Total Value$44.72

Total Shares93

Combined PnL-$0.08

Under — 56%Over — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 53¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$58.85	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 52.9¢	$824.9	$818.3	-$6.6	48% 3205-3505 (6710)
SU suntori<$100	Underavg 54.3¢	$54.12	$52.79	-$1.33	46% 2616-3104 (5720)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Underavg 53¢	$34.45	$34.13	-$0.33	54% 286-244 (530)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$21.24	$21.9	+$0.66	43% 180-237 (417)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$12.88	$12.88	+$0	32% 99-207 (306)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 48¢	$7.98	$8.82	+$0.83	47% 895-992 (1887)
IC ic4creamCTR<$100	Overavg 52¢	$6.76	$5.98	-$0.78	6% 30-460 (490)
PR primmCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$3.92	$3.96	+$0.04	59% 931-653 (1584)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$1,353.04

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$58.85

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$824.9

Value

$818.3

PnL

-$6.6

Record

48%

3205-3505 (6710)

suntori<$100

Under

Invested

$54.12

Value

$52.79

PnL

-$1.33

Record

46%

2616-3104 (5720)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Under

Invested

$34.45

Value

$34.13

PnL

-$0.33

Record

54%

286-244 (530)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$21.24

Value

$21.9

PnL

+$0.66

Record

43%

180-237 (417)

OddstormCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$12.88

Value

$12.88

PnL

+$0

Record

32%

99-207 (306)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$7.98

Value

$8.82

PnL

+$0.83

Record

47%

895-992 (1887)

ic4creamCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.76

Value

$5.98

PnL

-$0.78

Record

30-460 (490)

primmCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.92

Value

$3.96

PnL

+$0.04

Record

59%

931-653 (1584)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 51%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.