Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (86%). 8 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

North Texas vs. UTSA: O/U 73.5

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 14¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 15

Over14¢Under86¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 67%

Total Value

$4.1K

Combined PnL

$100.89

Smart Money Entry

50.1¢ → 14¢

-72% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 12 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Under 86%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over14%

Under86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over8 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares4,524

Combined PnL-$119.5

Under4 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares2,880

Combined PnL+$220.38

Over — 67%Under — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Late

60h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 57¢	$1.0K	$981.85	-$49.77	56% 3787-2956 (6743)
PL pltrkr111CTR	Overavg 57¢	$1,000	$929.82	-$70.18	6% 36-545 (581)
PR primm	Underavg 72¢	$756.72	$903.86	+$147.14	59% 1050-730 (1780)
IM imjustkenisghey	Underavg 43¢	$729.8	$798.07	+$68.27	44% 47-61 (108)
RN1CTR	Overavg 28¢	$221.76	$225.72	+$3.96	55% 5758-4807 (10565)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Overavg 28¢	$56	$57	+$1	50% 3962-3959 (7921)
GC GC-P<$100	Underavg 43¢	$45.05	$49.24	+$4.19	41% 488-696 (1184)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 57¢	$42.18	$39.22	-$2.96	48% 2348-2563 (4911)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Overavg 56.7¢	$35.13	$32.86	-$2.27	53% 353-317 (670)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 44¢	$11.44	$12.22	+$0.78	38% 1223-2021 (3244)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 28¢	$11.48	$11.68	+$0.2	50% 1850-1880 (3730)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 27¢	$9.29	$9.81	+$0.52	47% 3580-3963 (7543)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$1,031.63

Value

$981.85

PnL

-$49.77

Record

56%

3787-2956 (6743)

pltrkr111CTR

Over

Invested

$1,000

Value

$929.82

PnL

-$70.18

Record

36-545 (581)

primm

Under

Invested

$756.72

Value

$903.86

PnL

+$147.14

Record

59%

1050-730 (1780)

imjustkenisghey

Under

Invested

$729.8

Value

$798.07

PnL

+$68.27

Record

44%

47-61 (108)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$221.76

Value

$225.72

PnL

+$3.96

Record

55%

5758-4807 (10565)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$56

Value

$57

PnL

+$1

Record

50%

3962-3959 (7921)

GC-P<$100

Under

Invested

$45.05

Value

$49.24

PnL

+$4.19

Record

41%

488-696 (1184)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$42.18

Value

$39.22

PnL

-$2.96

Record

48%

2348-2563 (4911)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$35.13

Value

$32.86

PnL

-$2.27

Record

53%

353-317 (670)

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

$11.44

Value

$12.22

PnL

+$0.78

Record

38%

1223-2021 (3244)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11.48

Value

$11.68

PnL

+$0.2

Record

50%

1850-1880 (3730)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.29

Value

$9.81

PnL

+$0.52

Record

47%

3580-3963 (7543)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 12 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Under 86%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Late

60h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance15.6%

14.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$539.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

639.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.