Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold North Texas, while the market favors UTSA (67%). 7 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: North Texas (-3.5)

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold North Texas (64%) · North Texas at 34¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

North Texas34¢UTSA66¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

North Texas

Consensus Traders

North Texas 64%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

-$52.93

Smart Money Entry

45.8¢ → 33.5¢

-27% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNorth Texas at 34%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

North Texas

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors UTSA 67%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

North Texas34%

UTSA67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

UTSA4 traders

Total Value$895.29

Total Shares1,646

Combined PnL-$19.76

North Texas7 traders

Total Value$889.54

Total Shares2,014

Combined PnL-$33.17

UTSA — 36%North Texas — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on North Texas. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNorth Texas 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000North Texas 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GL glennyorkshire	UTSAavg 54¢	$473.68	$442.98	-$30.7	46% 189-223 (412)
38 38791873984189CTR	North Texasavg 46¢	$340.54	$344.24	+$3.7	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
FO Forecastication2CTR	North Texasavg 46¢	$260.82	$269.33	+$8.5	44% 283-358 (641)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	UTSAavg 54¢	$189.54	$196.56	+$7.02	49% 389-413 (802)
PU purplegattoCTR	North Texasavg 46¢	$220.8	$175.2	-$45.6	68% 2656-1243 (3899)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles	UTSAavg 50¢	$446	$159.76	+$3.92	65% 140-74 (214)
0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492<$100	UTSAavg 56¢	$95.99	$95.99	-$0	1% 5-336 (341)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	North Texasavg 44¢	$72.82	$72.82	+$0	37% 1176-1966 (3142)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	North Texasavg 46¢	$20.7	$20.93	+$0.23	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	North Texasavg 44¢	$4.44	$4.44	+$0	53% 2063-1842 (3905)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	North Texasavg 44¢	$2.6	$2.6	+$0	37% 1153-1939 (3092)

glennyorkshire

UTSA

Invested

$473.68

Value

$442.98

PnL

-$30.7

Record

46%

189-223 (412)

38791873984189CTR

North Texas

Invested

$340.54

Value

$344.24

PnL

+$3.7

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

Forecastication2CTR

North Texas

Invested

$260.82

Value

$269.33

PnL

+$8.5

Record

44%

283-358 (641)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

UTSA

Invested

$189.54

Value

$196.56

PnL

+$7.02

Record

49%

389-413 (802)

purplegattoCTR

North Texas

Invested

$220.8

Value

$175.2

PnL

-$45.6

Record

68%

2656-1243 (3899)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singles

UTSA

Invested

$446

Value

$159.76

PnL

+$3.92

Record

65%

140-74 (214)

0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492<$100

UTSA

Invested

$95.99

Value

$95.99

PnL

-$0

Record

5-336 (341)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

North Texas

Invested

$72.82

Value

$72.82

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

1176-1966 (3142)

Pan9XCTR<$100

North Texas

Invested

$20.7

Value

$20.93

PnL

+$0.23

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

ghorrockCTR<$100

North Texas

Invested

$4.44

Value

$4.44

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

2063-1842 (3905)

LimousinCTR<$100

North Texas

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.6

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

1153-1939 (3092)

Research grade

NeutralNorth Texas at 34%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

North Texas

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors UTSA 67%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on North Texas. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNorth Texas 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000North Texas 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that North Texas wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance35.6%

33.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$180.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

280.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.