Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold North Texas, while the market favors UTSA (91%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: North Texas (-2.5)

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold North Texas (38%) · North Texas at 9.0¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

North Texas9¢UTSA91¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

North Texas

Consensus Traders

North Texas 38%

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

$114.24

Smart Money Entry

51¢ → 9¢

-82% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidNorth Texas at 9%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

North Texas

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors UTSA 91%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

North Texas9%

UTSA91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

North Texas3 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares3,247

Combined PnL+$118.92

UTSA5 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,343

Combined PnL-$4.68

North Texas — 38%UTSA — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on North Texas. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNorth Texas 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedUTSA 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000UTSA 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	North Texasavg 51¢	$1.6K	$1.8K	+$128.76	50% 2728-2703 (5431)
VeryLucky888	UTSAavg 49¢	$1.0K	$838.13	+$0.99	54% 1714-1481 (3195)
0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492	UTSAavg 51¢	$466.56	$448.27	-$18.3	1% 5-336 (341)
38 38791873984189	UTSAavg 49¢	$673.75	$283.03	+$13.14	48% 3662-4031 (7693)
0X 0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1<$100	UTSAavg 50¢	$66.04	$64.72	-$1.32	5% 23-396 (419)
GH ghorrock<$100	UTSAavg 50¢	$13.17	$13.98	+$0.81	53% 2122-1900 (4022)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	North Texasavg 50¢	$2.71	$2.98	+$0.27	38% 1242-1999 (3241)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	North Texasavg 55¢	$12.22	$2.11	-$10.11	38% 1390-2228 (3618)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

North Texas

Invested

$1,641.69

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$128.76

Record

50%

2728-2703 (5431)

VeryLucky888

UTSA

Invested

$1,003.81

Value

$838.13

PnL

+$0.99

Record

54%

1714-1481 (3195)

0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492

UTSA

Invested

$466.56

Value

$448.27

PnL

-$18.3

Record

5-336 (341)

38791873984189

UTSA

Invested

$673.75

Value

$283.03

PnL

+$13.14

Record

48%

3662-4031 (7693)

0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1<$100

UTSA

Invested

$66.04

Value

$64.72

PnL

-$1.32

Record

23-396 (419)

ghorrock<$100

UTSA

Invested

$13.17

Value

$13.98

PnL

+$0.81

Record

53%

2122-1900 (4022)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

North Texas

Invested

$2.71

Value

$2.98

PnL

+$0.27

Record

38%

1242-1999 (3241)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

North Texas

Invested

$12.22

Value

$2.11

PnL

-$10.11

Record

38%

1390-2228 (3618)

Research grade

AvoidNorth Texas at 9%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

North Texas

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors UTSA 91%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on North Texas. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNorth Texas 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedUTSA 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000UTSA 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that North Texas wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance10.4%

9.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$856.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

956.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.