New Mexico State vs. Missouri State: O/U 45.5

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 62¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Over39¢Under61¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$40.38

Smart Money Entry

55.4¢ → 61.5¢

+11% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over39%

Under62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$722.98

Total Shares1,602

Combined PnL+$6.44

Under6 traders

Total Value$974.13

Total Shares1,668

Combined PnL+$33.94

Over — 25%Under — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primmCTR	Overavg 45¢	$622.8	$581.28	-$41.52	59% 932-653 (1585)
RN1	Underavg 55¢	$432.85	$436.79	+$3.94	55% 5455-4439 (9894)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Underavg 55¢	$214.58	$216.73	+$2.15	50% 3807-3776 (7583)
└ Under leg	Underavg 55¢	$126.58	$127.73	+$1.15
└ Over leg	Overavg 44¢	$88	$89	+$1
38 38791873984189	Underavg 54.9¢	$202.73	$204.87	+$2.14	48% 3273-3600 (6873)
BI biying88888	Underavg 56¢	$132.72	$148.13	+$15.41	44% 203-260 (463)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 43¢	$93.74	$141.7	+$47.96	50% 2560-2519 (5079)
NA NatoAlfista	Underavg 57¢	$124.26	$136.25	+$11.99	43% 187-248 (435)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 55¢	$36.63	$37	+$0.37	50% 1601-1625 (3226)
NO NotJump<$100	Underavg 55¢	$11	$11.1	+$0.1	52% 883-823 (1706)

primmCTR

Over

Invested

$622.8

Value

$581.28

PnL

-$41.52

Record

59%

932-653 (1585)

RN1

Under

Invested

$432.85

Value

$436.79

PnL

+$3.94

Record

55%

5455-4439 (9894)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$214.58

Value

$216.73

PnL

+$2.15

Record

50%

3807-3776 (7583)

Both legs:

Under$126.5855¢+$1.15

Over$8844¢+$1

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$202.73

Value

$204.87

PnL

+$2.14

Record

48%

3273-3600 (6873)

biying88888

Under

Invested

$132.72

Value

$148.13

PnL

+$15.41

Record

44%

203-260 (463)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$93.74

Value

$141.7

PnL

+$47.96

Record

50%

2560-2519 (5079)

NatoAlfista

Under

Invested

$124.26

Value

$136.25

PnL

+$11.99

Record

43%

187-248 (435)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$36.63

Value

$37

PnL

+$0.37

Record

50%

1601-1625 (3226)

NotJump<$100

Under

Invested

$11

Value

$11.1

PnL

+$0.1

Record

52%

883-823 (1706)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 62%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.