Spread: Missouri State (-1.5)
6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold New Mexico State (60%) · New Mexico State at 53¢ · $35K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
New Mexico State
10
New Mexico State 60%
$34.9K
$644.16
50.7¢ → 52.5¢
+4% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNew Mexico State at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | New Mexico Stateavg 50.9¢ | $13.9K | $14.4K | +$441.07 | 50% 2543-2505 (5048) |
BO BoggsFromShawshankCTR | Missouri Stateavg 49¢ | $7.0K | $7.0K | +$71.05 | 3% 12-393 (405) |
BO Bozos14CTR | Missouri Stateavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $5.0K | -$50 | 6% 9-132 (141) |
HI hi774cCTR | Missouri Stateavg 49¢ | $4.9K | $4.9K | +$49.98 | 22% 179-619 (798) |
HO HomeRunHazard | New Mexico Stateavg 50¢ | $2.4K | $2.5K | +$119.65 | 56% 3687-2847 (6534) |
LI Limousin | New Mexico Stateavg 50¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$10.05 | 36% 975-1701 (2676) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | New Mexico Stateavg 50¢ | $36.74 | $38.58 | +$1.84 | 48% 2157-2304 (4461) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Missouri Stateavg 49¢ | $22.05 | $22.28 | +$0.22 | 50% 1594-1620 (3214) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | New Mexico Stateavg 50¢ | $18.28 | $18.46 | +$0.18 | 48% 3239-3552 (6791) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | New Mexico Stateavg 50¢ | $11.66 | $11.78 | +$0.12 | 53% 1811-1610 (3421) |
Invested
$13,917.45
Value
$14.4K
PnL
+$441.07
Record
50%
2543-2505 (5048)
Invested
$6,962.9
Value
$7.0K
PnL
+$71.05
Record
3%
12-393 (405)
Invested
$5,000
Value
$5.0K
PnL
-$50
Record
6%
9-132 (141)
Invested
$4,898.38
Value
$4.9K
PnL
+$49.98
Record
22%
179-619 (798)
Invested
$2,393
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$119.65
Record
56%
3687-2847 (6534)
Invested
$1,004.52
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$10.05
Record
36%
975-1701 (2676)
Invested
$36.74
Value
$38.58
PnL
+$1.84
Record
48%
2157-2304 (4461)
Invested
$22.05
Value
$22.28
PnL
+$0.22
Record
50%
1594-1620 (3214)
Invested
$18.28
Value
$18.46
PnL
+$0.18
Record
48%
3239-3552 (6791)
Invested
$11.66
Value
$11.78
PnL
+$0.12
Record
53%
1811-1610 (3421)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh
New Mexico State — $14.4K
BoggsFromShawshank
CTRMissouri State — $7.0K
Bozos14
CTRMissouri State — $5.0K
hi774c
CTRMissouri State — $4.9K
HomeRunHazard
New Mexico State — $2.5K
Limousin
New Mexico State — $1.0K
ferdinand2
New Mexico State — $38.58
Pan9X
CTRMissouri State — $22.28
38791873984189
New Mexico State — $18.46
ghorrock
New Mexico State — $11.78