Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold New Mexico State, while the market favors Missouri State (56%). 5 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

New Mexico State vs. Missouri State

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold New Mexico State (38%) · New Mexico State at 45¢ · $17K held · ended Nov 14

New Mexico State45¢Missouri State55¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

New Mexico State

Consensus Traders

New Mexico State 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$17.3K

Combined PnL

-$117.66

Smart Money Entry

48.4¢ → 44.5¢

-8% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNew Mexico State at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

New Mexico State

5 of 13 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Missouri State 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

New Mexico State45%

Missouri State56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

New Mexico State5 traders

Total Value$8.7K

Total Shares17,916

Combined PnL+$8.81

Missouri State8 traders

Total Value$6.5K

Total Shares12,722

Combined PnL-$126.47

New Mexico State — 38%Missouri State — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on New Mexico State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNew Mexico State 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Missouri State 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	New Mexico Stateavg 48¢	$7.8K	$7.8K	+$0	50% 2543-2505 (5048)
0xheavy888	Missouri Stateavg 52¢	$5.2K	$5.1K	-$100	54% 503-422 (925)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	New Mexico Stateavg 51¢	$2.3K	$2.1K	-$96.88	50% 3807-3775 (7582)
└ New Mexico State leg	New Mexico Stateavg 51¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$162.38
└ Missouri State leg	Missouri Stateavg 52¢	$946.39	$1.0K	+$65.5
GA gagarin59	Missouri Stateavg 52¢	$999.96	$980.73	-$19.23	42% 64-89 (153)
RN1CTR	New Mexico Stateavg 52¢	$414.44	$418.43	+$3.99	55% 5404-4376 (9780)
BA babybellsCTR	New Mexico Stateavg 52¢	$345.8	$349.13	+$3.32	30% 208-477 (685)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Missouri Stateavg 51¢	$165.32	$163.7	-$1.62	56% 4066-3175 (7241)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR	New Mexico Stateavg 52¢	$145.6	$147	+$1.4	48% 526-562 (1088)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Missouri Stateavg 51¢	$140	$138.63	-$1.37	16% 63-329 (392)
TH thirdt1me<$100	Missouri Stateavg 53¢	$53	$53.5	+$0.5	48% 281-301 (582)
38 38791873984189<$100	Missouri Stateavg 53¢	$26.51	$26.76	+$0.25	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
PA Pan9X<$100	Missouri Stateavg 53¢	$67.9	$20.7	-$4.9	50% 1594-1620 (3214)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100	Missouri Stateavg 51¢	$10.2	$10.1	-$0.1	39% 1089-1673 (2762)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	New Mexico Stateavg 49¢	$9.8	$9.9	+$0.1	45% 263-319 (582)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

New Mexico State

Invested

$7,754.13

Value

$7.8K

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

2543-2505 (5048)

0xheavy888

Missouri State

Invested

$5,200

Value

$5.1K

PnL

-$100

Record

54%

503-422 (925)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

New Mexico State

Invested

$2,312.65

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$96.88

Record

50%

3807-3775 (7582)

Both legs:

New Mexico State$1,272.6551¢-$162.38

Missouri State$946.3952¢+$65.5

gagarin59

Missouri State

Invested

$999.96

Value

$980.73

PnL

-$19.23

Record

42%

64-89 (153)

RN1CTR

New Mexico State

Invested

$414.44

Value

$418.43

PnL

+$3.99

Record

55%

5404-4376 (9780)

babybellsCTR

New Mexico State

Invested

$345.8

Value

$349.13

PnL

+$3.32

Record

30%

208-477 (685)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Missouri State

Invested

$165.32

Value

$163.7

PnL

-$1.62

Record

56%

4066-3175 (7241)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR

New Mexico State

Invested

$145.6

Value

$147

PnL

+$1.4

Record

48%

526-562 (1088)

ferrariChampions2026

Missouri State

Invested

$140

Value

$138.63

PnL

-$1.37

Record

16%

63-329 (392)

thirdt1me<$100

Missouri State

Invested

$53

Value

$53.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

48%

281-301 (582)

38791873984189<$100

Missouri State

Invested

$26.51

Value

$26.76

PnL

+$0.25

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

Pan9X<$100

Missouri State

Invested

$67.9

Value

$20.7

PnL

-$4.9

Record

50%

1594-1620 (3214)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100

Missouri State

Invested

$10.2

Value

$10.1

PnL

-$0.1

Record

39%

1089-1673 (2762)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

New Mexico State

Invested

$9.8

Value

$9.9

PnL

+$0.1

Record

45%

263-319 (582)

Research grade

NeutralNew Mexico State at 45%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

New Mexico State

5 of 13 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Missouri State 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on New Mexico State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNew Mexico State 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Missouri State 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that New Mexico State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.