New Mexico vs. San Jose State: O/U 43.5

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (57%) · Over at 53¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 31

Over53¢Under47¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 57%

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

-$152.57

Smart Money Entry

49.9¢ → 53¢

+6% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over53%

Under47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares4,495

Combined PnL-$222.72

Under3 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares3,206

Combined PnL+$70.16

Over — 57%Under — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 50¢	$2.1K	$1.9K	-$213.24	54% 17179-14402 (31581)
0xheavy888CTR	Underavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$60.96	55% 7136-5731 (12867)
0X 0x0A77exmmCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$54.88	$61.6	+$6.72	54% 2305-1991 (4296)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Overavg 51¢	$57.12	$50.4	-$6.72	54% 2996-2576 (5572)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Overavg 46.5¢	$52.59	$49.16	-$3.43	53% 10788-9397 (20185)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 51¢	$31.62	$34.1	+$2.48	58% 28788-21225 (50013)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 39¢	$1.95	$2.63	+$0.68	49% 8081-8480 (16561)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$2,132.45

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$213.24

Record

54%

17179-14402 (31581)

0xheavy888CTR

Under

Invested

$1,515.62

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$60.96

Record

55%

7136-5731 (12867)

0x0A77exmmCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$54.88

Value

$61.6

PnL

+$6.72

Record

54%

2305-1991 (4296)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Over

Invested

$57.12

Value

$50.4

PnL

-$6.72

Record

54%

2996-2576 (5572)

justaluckydude<$100

Over

Invested

$52.59

Value

$49.16

PnL

-$3.43

Record

53%

10788-9397 (20185)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$31.62

Value

$34.1

PnL

+$2.48

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$1.95

Value

$2.63

PnL

+$0.68

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.2%

53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$81.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

181.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.