New Mexico vs. San Jose State

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold New Mexico (55%) · New Mexico at 91¢ · $391 held · ended Oct 31

New Mexico91¢San Jose State9¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

New Mexico

Consensus Traders

New Mexico 55%

Total Value

$391.29

Combined PnL

$8.2

Smart Money Entry

84.4¢ → 91.2¢

+8% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNew Mexico at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

New Mexico

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

New Mexico91%

San Jose State9%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

New Mexico6 traders

Total Value$305.84

Total Shares356

Combined PnL+$5.17

San Jose State5 traders

Total Value$85.45

Total Shares708

Combined PnL+$3.04

New Mexico — 55%San Jose State — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	New Mexicoavg 85¢	$151.14	$152.03	+$0.89	54% 17179-14402 (31581)
AN AnonymousUsername	New Mexicoavg 84¢	$113.4	$115.42	+$2.02	73% 6697-2416 (9113)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	San Jose Stateavg 15¢	$36.03	$34.83	-$1.2	50% 33488-33047 (66535)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	San Jose Stateavg 19¢	$26.79	$30.32	+$3.53	53% 10788-9397 (20185)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	New Mexicoavg 81.3¢	$16.21	$18.12	+$1.91	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	San Jose Stateavg 5¢	$15	$16.5	+$1.5	52% 13817-12605 (26422)
RollAwayTheDew<$100	New Mexicoavg 84¢	$15.75	$16.03	+$0.28	53% 404-355 (759)
HE Herdonia<$100	New Mexicoavg 84¢	$3.1	$3.15	+$0.06	54% 3357-2905 (6262)
AV averagejoetradersCTR<$100	San Jose Stateavg 13.3¢	$2.78	$2.51	-$0.27	56% 542-427 (969)
OX oxe78sh4w98CTR<$100	San Jose Stateavg 30¢	$1.82	$1.3	-$0.51	53% 429-386 (815)
HRTrading<$100	New Mexicoavg 90¢	$1.08	$1.08	+$0	53% 4792-4312 (9104)

HomeRunHazard

New Mexico

Invested

$151.14

Value

$152.03

PnL

+$0.89

Record

54%

17179-14402 (31581)

AnonymousUsername

New Mexico

Invested

$113.4

Value

$115.42

PnL

+$2.02

Record

73%

6697-2416 (9113)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

San Jose State

Invested

$36.03

Value

$34.83

PnL

-$1.2

Record

50%

33488-33047 (66535)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

San Jose State

Invested

$26.79

Value

$30.32

PnL

+$3.53

Record

53%

10788-9397 (20185)

topdogbigboi<$100

New Mexico

Invested

$16.21

Value

$18.12

PnL

+$1.91

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

San Jose State

Invested

$15

Value

$16.5

PnL

+$1.5

Record

52%

13817-12605 (26422)

RollAwayTheDew<$100

New Mexico

Invested

$15.75

Value

$16.03

PnL

+$0.28

Record

53%

404-355 (759)

Herdonia<$100

New Mexico

Invested

$3.1

Value

$3.15

PnL

+$0.06

Record

54%

3357-2905 (6262)

averagejoetradersCTR<$100

San Jose State

Invested

$2.78

Value

$2.51

PnL

-$0.27

Record

56%

542-427 (969)

oxe78sh4w98CTR<$100

San Jose State

Invested

$1.82

Value

$1.3

PnL

-$0.51

Record

53%

429-386 (815)

HRTrading<$100

New Mexico

Invested

$1.08

Value

$1.08

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

Research grade

NeutralNew Mexico at 91%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

New Mexico

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that New Mexico wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.6%

91.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.