Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold UNLV, while the market favors Northern Illinois (54%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: UNLV (-23.5)

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold UNLV (89%) · UNLV at 46¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 1

UNLV46¢Northern Illinois54¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

UNLV

Consensus Traders

UNLV 89%

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

$13.22

Smart Money Entry

49.7¢ → 46¢

-7% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUNLV at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

UNLV

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Northern Illinois 54%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

UNLV46%

Northern Illinois54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

UNLV8 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares9,376

Combined PnL+$13.19

Northern Illinois1 trader

Total Value$3.45

Total Shares7

Combined PnL+$0.03

UNLV — 89%Northern Illinois — 11%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888CTR	UNLVavg 50.6¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$48.74	58% 41507-30134 (71641)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	UNLVavg 49¢	$980	$1.0K	+$30	47% 2470-2777 (5247)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	UNLVavg 51¢	$955.25	$955.25	+$0	54% 17119-14335 (31454)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	UNLVavg 49¢	$805.74	$830.4	+$24.67	50% 2499-2487 (4986)
HI hi774cCTR	UNLVavg 48¢	$679.2	$686.28	+$7.07	52% 4714-4426 (9140)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	UNLVavg 50.5¢	$57.64	$57.66	+$0.02	57% 13613-10430 (24043)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	UNLVavg 51¢	$21.93	$21.93	+$0	54% 2976-2554 (5530)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	UNLVavg 50¢	$17	$17.17	+$0.17	58% 28421-20980 (49401)
38 38791873984189<$100	Northern Illinoisavg 49¢	$3.41	$3.45	+$0.03	46% 7988-9443 (17431)

VeryLucky888CTR

UNLV

Invested

$1,148.33

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$48.74

Record

58%

41507-30134 (71641)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

UNLV

Invested

$980

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$30

Record

47%

2470-2777 (5247)

HomeRunHazardCTR

UNLV

Invested

$955.25

Value

$955.25

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

17119-14335 (31454)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

UNLV

Invested

$805.74

Value

$830.4

PnL

+$24.67

Record

50%

2499-2487 (4986)

hi774cCTR

UNLV

Invested

$679.2

Value

$686.28

PnL

+$7.07

Record

52%

4714-4426 (9140)

ghorrockCTR<$100

UNLV

Invested

$57.64

Value

$57.66

PnL

+$0.02

Record

57%

13613-10430 (24043)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

UNLV

Invested

$21.93

Value

$21.93

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

2976-2554 (5530)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

UNLV

Invested

$17

Value

$17.17

PnL

+$0.17

Record

58%

28421-20980 (49401)

38791873984189<$100

Northern Illinois

Invested

$3.41

Value

$3.45

PnL

+$0.03

Record

46%

7988-9443 (17431)

Research grade

NeutralUNLV at 46%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

UNLV

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Northern Illinois 54%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that UNLV wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.2%

46.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$107.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

207.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.