Spread: UNLV (-22.5)
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Northern Illinois (50%) · Northern Illinois at 52¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Northern Illinois
6
Northern Illinois 50%
$4.9K
-$10.9
50¢ → 51.5¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNorthern Illinois at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BA Bagwell306CTR | UNLVavg 49¢ | $2.0K | $2.2K | +$200 | 59% 4057-2872 (6929) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Northern Illinoisavg 50¢ | $2.0K | $1.9K | -$161.33 | 54% 17200-14430 (31630) |
HI hi774c | Northern Illinoisavg 50¢ | $776.36 | $714.25 | -$62.11 | 52% 4749-4468 (9217) |
NA NatoAlfistaCTR | UNLVavg 49¢ | $114.66 | $126.36 | +$11.7 | 50% 3891-3854 (7745) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | UNLVavg 49¢ | $31.36 | $34.56 | +$3.2 | 58% 28900-21323 (50223) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Northern Illinoisavg 50¢ | $29.45 | $27.09 | -$2.36 | 57% 13944-10725 (24669) |
Invested
$1,960
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$200
Record
59%
4057-2872 (6929)
Invested
$2,016.66
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$161.33
Record
54%
17200-14430 (31630)
Invested
$776.36
Value
$714.25
PnL
-$62.11
Record
52%
4749-4468 (9217)
Invested
$114.66
Value
$126.36
PnL
+$11.7
Record
50%
3891-3854 (7745)
Invested
$31.36
Value
$34.56
PnL
+$3.2
Record
58%
28900-21323 (50223)
Invested
$29.45
Value
$27.09
PnL
-$2.36
Record
57%
13944-10725 (24669)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.