Spread: UNLV (-21.5)
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold UNLV (100%) · UNLV at 51¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
UNLV
5
UNLV 100%
$1.8K
$120.29
50¢ → 50.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUNLV at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | UNLVavg 50¢ | $992.26 | $1.1K | +$109.15 | 54% 17200-14430 (31630) |
 VeryLucky888 | UNLVavg 50¢ | $500 | $495 | -$5 | 58% 42202-30652 (72854) |
NA NatoAlfista<$100 | UNLVavg 51¢ | $81.6 | $88.8 | +$7.2 | 50% 3891-3854 (7745) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | UNLVavg 50¢ | $66 | $73.26 | +$7.26 | 58% 28900-21323 (50223) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | UNLVavg 50¢ | $15.28 | $16.96 | +$1.68 | 50% 33606-33156 (66762) |
Invested
$992.26
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$109.15
Record
54%
17200-14430 (31630)
VeryLucky888Invested
$500
Value
$495
PnL
-$5
Record
58%
42202-30652 (72854)
Invested
$81.6
Value
$88.8
PnL
+$7.2
Record
50%
3891-3854 (7745)
Invested
$66
Value
$73.26
PnL
+$7.26
Record
58%
28900-21323 (50223)
Invested
$15.28
Value
$16.96
PnL
+$1.68
Record
50%
33606-33156 (66762)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.